The quiet voice in Riyadh that dictates the pace in Washington
The American decision on whether to attack Iran or refrain from action is not made in a vacuum. It is a product of a system of checks and balances, in which the Saudi voice has become more significant than ever.
When discussions in the corridors of the administration in Washington heat up around the Iranian issue — whether it concerns the possibility of a preemptive strike, a broad military response, or controlled escalation — the eyes of analysts and the public naturally turn toward Jerusalem or the Pentagon. However, in practice, one of the most critical and influential components in the decision-making calculus in the United States is not found in the Oval Office, nor in the command headquarters in the Middle East. It is found in the royal palace in Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia, the regional and economic power of the Persian Gulf, manages a complex, winding, and deep balance of influence with the US. Although many tend to perceive Saudi Arabia as an automatic ally for any move aimed at harming the regime of the ayatollahs in Tehran, the geopolitical reality is much more complex. Saudi Arabia does not act as a party encouraging an American strike; it acts as a restraining, calculated, and measured factor, reshaping the boundaries of American policy in the Middle East.
Lessons of the past and interests of tomorrow
To understand the current Saudi position, one must go back just a few years. In September 2019, the oil facilities of the "Aramco" company in Abqaiq and Khurais suffered a heavy blow via drones and cruise missiles, the launch of which was attributed to Iran and its proxies. This event not only temporarily paralyzed half of the kingdom's oil production but also delivered a harsh message to the royal family: on the day of reckoning, the American security umbrella is not airtight, and the price of a direct confrontation with Iran will be collected first and foremost at home.
Since that turning point, Saudi Arabia's strategic architecture has changed. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has placed "Vision 2030" at the top of the national priority list — a mega-plan aimed at diversifying the Saudi economy, attracting massive international investments, and turning the kingdom into a global technological, tourist, and financial hub. A broad regional war, in which Iranian missiles land on the skyscrapers of Riyadh or ignite a firefight in the Strait of Hormuz, is the absolute nightmare of this economic plan. No foreign investor will pour billions into ambitious projects when the skies of the Gulf are covered in the smoke of a military confrontation.
Therefore, the pressure that Riyadh is currently exerting on Washington clearly leans toward restraint. The Saudis are making it unequivocally clear to the Americans: any military move that shakes the Middle East and brings about a broad Iranian response will endanger both American and Saudi assets, and undermine global economic stability.
Levers of pressure: from oil to open skies
But how does one country, as strong as it may be, influence a superpower like the United States? The answer lies in the unique levers of pressure in the hands of the Saudis.
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The global energy market. The US, regardless of the identity of the incumbent president, is very sensitive to fuel prices at home. Military escalation with Iran, which would lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or damage to energy facilities in the Gulf, could drive oil prices to new highs. Saudi Arabia, as the balancing factor of the OPEC+ organization, holds the key to the ability to regulate the global oil supply.
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Logistics and airspace. A broad American strike in Iran or a prolonged war requires regional cooperation — from the use of the airspace of Gulf states, through aerial refueling, to the deployment of forces at bases in the region. As Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states make it clear that they will not allow the use of their territory or airspace for a preemptive strike against Iran, the operational freedom of action of the US is dramatically reduced.
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The diplomatic carrot. Washington is eager to present historic geopolitical achievements, and above all a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel and strategic infrastructure of a regional defense alliance. Saudi Arabia links its willingness to advance on this axis to the ability of the US to ensure stability and avoid being dragged into military adventures that will ignite the region.
The Saudi dilemma: the desire to get rid of the threat versus the fear of the price of war
This does not mean that Saudi Arabia has become a fan of the ayatollah regime. Tehran was and remains the central strategic rival of Riyadh. The Saudis would be happy to see Iran's nuclear and military capabilities eroded to the ground and the ring of Iranian proxies dismantled.
However, the Saudi experience teaches that the US sometimes tends to enter conflicts in the Middle East without a clear exit strategy. The Saudi paradox lies in the fact that it wishes for the weakening of Iran, but understands that the price of an American attempt to defeat Tehran by military force could be a regional ruin, in which Saudi Arabia will pay the heaviest price.
Therefore, the Saudi strategy toward Washington is one of a "flashing red light." The kingdom tells the Americans: if you choose to attack, you must do so only if you have absolute guarantees for our protection, a plan for the immediate containment of the event, and the ability to prevent a total regional war. In the absence of these conditions, the Saudi priority is diplomacy, direct dialogue with Tehran, and quiet containment.
Compass of the Middle East
The American decision on whether to attack Iran or refrain from action is not made in a vacuum. It is a product of a system of checks and balances, in which the Saudi voice has become more significant than ever.
While the public discourse focuses on firepower, intelligence capabilities, and internal political interests in Washington, the reality is that the oil, airspace, and economic vision of Riyadh are among the factors shaping the boundaries of the arena. Saudi Arabia has proven that it is no longer just a "security client" of the US, but an independent player capable of blocking the moves of a superpower. As long as Washington cannot guarantee Riyadh a full response to the risks, the quiet pressure from the Gulf will continue to be a significant factor in the American decision on whether to pull the trigger against Tehran.
Prof. Mohammed Wattad, Professor of Law, President of the Ramat Gan Academic College, and a visiting senior research fellow at the INSS
