In the negotiations between Netanyahu and Deri, almost everyone loses

Anyone who has been involved in negotiations knows that one of the most important issues is to understand what alternatives the other side brings to the table and what your own alternatives are. This is what allows you to insist on your positions or forces you to compromise and give up some of your interests. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu committed to his Haredi partners that he would promote a conscription law, or as some call it, an evasion law. He understood all along, especially in a situation of a war that has been going on for three years, that a law of this kind is a "finger in the eye" or a spit in the face of those who serve, so he decided — and not for the first time — not to fulfill his commitment. Not something his partners have not experienced before. This time they decided to take a new path.

No more empty threats about resigning and dismantling the government, threats they know they will not carry out and he knows they will not carry out. This time, Aryeh Deri, who is among the most veteran politicians and someone who has known Netanyahu well for decades, chose to use his understanding of the political reality and Netanyahu's weakness and led a campaign that would create paranoia for the Prime Minister, not regarding the current reality, but regarding the future.

In my role as commander of the General Staff negotiation team, I learned from my subordinates, the psychologists on the team, that a concrete fear can be dealt with: you analyze the threat, formulate a response that will neutralize the risk, and slowly you gain a sense of security and the fear dissipates. In the face of a vague but critical future threat, you begin to develop anxiety that can paralyze, the kind that sometimes becomes obsessive and impairs judgment and rational thinking. Deri knows how to soften. Deri, who is aware of the coalition's situation in the polls and is aware of who is emerging as the designated successor, even according to betting sites, understood that this is what would cause Netanyahu to give the Haredim a package of laws, appointments, and additional benefits that would soften the dissatisfaction of some of the Haredi sector's voters.

Deri understood that this time the threat would be perceived as credible. Gadi Eisenkot is not perceived as anti-religious; he is a former Chief of Staff, a Moroccan who grew up in the periphery, a bereaved father with high chances of entering the Prime Minister's office. Deri also remembers that Netanyahu's greatest defeat in the past was to another decorated Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Ehud Barak, and understands that Netanyahu will truly fear an alliance between Deri and Eisenkot. During the period when Gadi served in the war cabinet alongside Aryeh Deri, the Prime Minister saw the closeness between the two.

After providing the package of laws and benefits to Deri and the rest of the Haredim, the Prime Minister will try to get everyone to sign the "bloc" document, which is binding, in the hope that this will prevent opposition parties from forming a government with Shas. In practice, the current threat that caused the Prime Minister to go for a package of laws that he himself understands are harmful to him and the Likud, those that caused him to avoid entering the plenum for some of them, is a fake and not a real threat. Because for Deri to go with the opposition, he would have to agree to a law that would allow the conscription of thousands of Haredi fighters into the army every year, something that Deri might understand must happen, but not really something he could be a part of.

In the current negotiations, Deri won partially because a large part of the laws will be struck down. Netanyahu lost support among some of the coalition voters, the Chief of Staff lost the ability to enforce the conscription law for everyone, and his authority was damaged; the Supreme Court will experience further delegitimization of its status, which has been eroded in recent years, and the Knesset is losing more points from its already low status. Almost all of us are losing from the current move, perhaps with the exception of Gadi Eisenkot, who is positioning himself as Netanyahu's successor.

Col. (res.) Doron Hadar, former commander of the IDF General Staff negotiation unit.