Trump is not looking for a war with Iran - he is looking for a declaration of victory | Yair Marton

Anyone looking for a simple answer to the question of whether the USA is about to attack Iran again is missing the real story. The war is already here. Since the confrontation that began in February, the USA, Israel, and Iran have been in a campaign that has expanded far beyond the nuclear question. The missiles, the UAVs, the militias, the Houthis, the damage to shipping, and the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz have turned the entire Middle East into a single game board. Now the question is not who will win the next battle, but who will succeed in imposing the terms of the end.

Donald Trump is not necessarily a president who is looking for a big war. He is looking for a big result. From his perspective, an attack is a tool in negotiations. This is the reason why, within a few days, we hear American statements about the "greatest attack" and, conversely, statements about suspending the attack and giving diplomacy a chance.

The problem is that this strategy is dangerous. Once you have threatened war, deployed forces, blocked ports, and made it clear to the enemy that you are ready to escalate — it is very difficult to retreat without receiving something in return. And Donald Trump wants to receive a lot: to stop the nuclear program, to reduce missile capabilities, to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and to prove that America is still capable of imposing order in the Middle East. At the same time, he is not interested in being dragged into an endless war that will cost Americans dearly and hurt energy prices and the global economy.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia has become a central player. Riyadh is not interested in Iran becoming an unlimited regional power, but it also does not want to see its oil facilities become a target. From the perspective of Mohammed bin Salman, a full-scale war could damage his great project — turning Saudi Arabia into an economic and technological power. That is why the Saudi pressure on Donald Trump to stop and reach an arrangement is so significant.

The Houthis are also not a secondary player. They are the card that allows Tehran to expand the war without entering into a direct confrontation with the USA. The Red Sea, international shipping, and the threat to energy routes are strategic levers of pressure. Likewise, the Strait of Hormuz has become a test. If an arrangement is reached that restores freedom of navigation and allows Iran to export oil, Donald Trump will be able to present it as a victory of American power that brought Iran to the table without a ground invasion. Iran will be able to present it as survival under American pressure. And all sides will be able to declare victory. But if the talks fail, the story changes quickly. The chance for another campaign is not low.

Israel has a difficult dilemma here: on one hand, an arrangement that does not dismantle Iranian capabilities might only be a break before the next round. On the other hand, a prolonged war without a clear political goal could return the region to a circle of fire that no one knows where it will end.

In my assessment, we are expecting a war of nerves. The real battle is being waged now in the negotiation rooms, and there, just like on the battlefield, Donald Trump wants to be the one who fires the last shot.

The author is a strategic consultant and crisis manager.