All roads lead to Tehran: 4 fronts, two election dates, and a poverty line that brings the end closer
Almost three years into the war, and Israel is still in an open confrontation on four fronts: Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. All are connected to each other and managed from Tehran, and as long as the Iranian story is not closed, no front will be closed. On the near horizon, all scenarios are waiting for two dates: the elections in Israel at the end of October and the midterm elections in the USA at the beginning of November.
The October 7th war and the subsequent conflicts with Iran have changed the Middle East and Israel's strategic position. Nearly three years into the conflict that transformed the region, Israel remains in an open confrontation of varying intensity on four main fronts: Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
The situation on these interconnected fronts does not indicate a near possibility of closing any of them, although processes and talks are underway that may lead to solutions and allow Israel to return to routine. All fronts are looking forward to two dates: the elections in Israel at the end of October and the midterm elections in the USA at the beginning of November.
Iran: The key to everything
This period is characterized by stalling. All sides are waiting, attempting to improve positions ahead of the next round. President Donald Trump is delaying decisions, understanding that an intensive military attack will not necessarily bring the regime's defeat at this stage, while also keeping an eye on the midterm elections in Congress, where he is struggling to maintain the Republican majority.
Congressional support is essential for Trump to realize his reforms. His main fear is that renewing the war now—especially if it leads to rising fuel prices—will cause the loss of the majority he currently enjoys. Military arguments also support stalling, given the dwindling stockpiles of missiles, bombs, and interceptors.
The fear in Israel is that the midterm elections will lead to a victory for the Democrats. A loss of political power would force Trump into internal political struggles, preventing him from closing the Iranian story.
The poverty line
An optimistic aspect is the collapse of Iran's economy. Data indicates huge internal and external debts, bankruptcies, the fall below the poverty line for 55% of the population, and the freezing of oil companies' accounts by the Central Bank of Iran.
Salaries in the civilian public sector and pensions have been cut in half. It is expected that when the economy shuts down completely and salaries for Basij and Revolutionary Guard members are cut, a practical collapse of the regime will begin. Iran is aware of this, so there are fears they will intensify attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to provoke the US and affect Trump's election chances.
Gaza: Handing over weapons or a scam?
Iranian influence is less intense here than in Lebanon, which explains Hamas's surprising agreement to a weapons handover. Although Hamas's slogan is "Muqawama" (armed resistance), the very agreement to disarm is a revolutionary shift driven by Israeli military pressure.
The arrangement reached with the Peace Council includes handing over weapons under the 'supervision' of a Palestinian technocratic government and ISF forces composed of soldiers from Morocco, Uganda, and Kosovo. Despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statements about not accepting the 15 points, the IDF is redeploying near the yellow line and has effectively stopped significant offensive operations.
Lebanon: Optimism with high explosive potential
The Lebanese arena is relatively optimistic but volatile. The governments of Israel and Lebanon, amid Hezbollah's weakening, are negotiating based on a framework agreement signed in Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's channel has proven more effective than Vice President Vance's.
The agreements aim to end Hezbollah's military control and facilitate subsequent IDF withdrawal. However, implementation is challenging due to the weakness of the Lebanese army. The French are trying to promote an economic solution, tempting Hezbollah members to switch sides and serve in the official army to neutralize the organization.
Syria: Relative quiet
This is the quietest sector, as Iranian-linked militias and terrorist cells have been almost completely eradicated. The IDF is deployed on controlling bases, including the Hermon crest, and has no intention of withdrawing without a detailed security agreement.
Syria is intended to be part of a project to bypass the Strait of Hormuz using pipelines from the Gulf to the port of Banias. American companies, including Chevron, have already signed contracts and begun construction, which explains President Trump's support for the Syrian regime. Nevertheless, talks are stalled due to the lack of security guarantees for the Druze and Kurds.
