The Goal: To Collapse NATO — What is Putin Plotting?
Russia is deeply mired in the war in Ukraine, suffering heavy casualties and facing economic strain. However, according to a strategic document by the Atlantic Council, Vladimir Putin is not stopping. The West fears he may attempt to break the stalemate by provoking a crisis on NATO territory to prove that the mutual defense clause is merely an illusion.
On February 24, 2022, Russia expanded its invasion of Ukraine into a full-scale offensive that shook the foundations of the West. This move by Vladimir Putin reflected his vision of bringing all of Ukraine under Moscow's control. However, plans for a short operation failed, and the war turned into a prolonged arena of attrition, changing the security reality in Europe: Finland and Sweden joined NATO, turning the Baltic Sea into a "NATO lake."
Economic and Military Resilience
Russia is deeply mired in the war, with human losses estimated in the hundreds of thousands and modern equipment being destroyed on the battlefield. Nevertheless, the economy has shifted to a war footing, with the defense budget reaching 7% of GDP. Despite sanctions, Russia maintains resilience through resource exports via a "shadow fleet" and support from an axis of autocratic nations, including China, Iran, and North Korea.
A Window of Opportunity for Escalation
Analysts at the Atlantic Council, in a document titled "Putin's Next Step? Five Russian attack scenarios that Europe must prepare for," warn that Putin may seek victory on NATO territories. He perceives cracks in the alliance's cohesion and fatigue in the United States, which he believes creates a window of opportunity for controlled escalation.
Five Invasion Scenarios
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Kaliningrad: A breakthrough of a land corridor through Lithuania to connect with the enclave, effectively cutting off the Baltic states.
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Gotland: Seizing the Swedish island to paralyze NATO's naval and air traffic in the Baltic Sea.
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Narva: Hybrid warfare in Estonia, using provocations to establish a "people's republic."
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Åland Islands: Taking over Finland's demilitarized archipelago to control shipping routes.
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Svalbard: The most likely scenario — a "cold trap" on the archipelago belonging to Norway. Due to the legal ambiguity of the 1920 treaty, Russia could quickly seize the islands, leaving NATO with a dilemma: is it worth risking nuclear war to reclaim a remote territory?
