Dramatic mandate poll: Smotrich crushes Winter, will Tally Gotliv surprise?
A new poll reveals a turnaround at the top as Gadi Eizenkot and his new party overtake Netanyahu's Likud, while a surprising union on the right changes the balance of power.
Is the political map in Israel facing a shake-up ahead of the next elections? A comprehensive poll conducted on Wednesday and published on "Walla" presents a broad picture of the balance of power, while examining various scenarios in the right-wing bloc. The main focus of the poll examined the possibility of a joint run between the "Religious Zionism" party led by Bezalel Smotrich and the "Zehut" party led by Moshe Feiglin. The data shows that such a union proves itself and wins 4.1% of voter support, a figure that translates into 5 mandates in the next Knesset.
The full mandate picture of the parties that pass the electoral threshold presents a new leadership. The "Yashar!" party led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot takes the lead and establishes itself as the largest party in Israel with 24 mandates.
Immediately behind it stands the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, which garners 22 mandates. In third place is Naftali Bennett's "Beyachad" party with 15 seats. Further down the list is the "Democrats" party led by Yair Golan with 10 mandates, and Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" party with 9 mandates.
The ultra-Orthodox and Arab sectors maintain relative stability. The United Torah Judaism party led by Moshe Gafni wins 8 mandates, the same number received by a joint Arab list including Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad led by Yousef Jabareen.
Itamar Ben Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" party and the Shas party led by Aryeh Deri each win 7 mandates. The list of parties that make up the Knesset is closed by the joint list of Smotrich and Feiglin, which wins 5 mandates, and the Ra'am party led by Mansour Abbas, which also receives 5 mandates.
One of the dramatic figures in the poll is the amount of wasted votes. In both scenarios tested, it turns out that about 10% of voters' votes, which are equivalent to no less than 12 mandates, go to parties that do not cross the electoral threshold. The main victim of the Smotrich-Feiglin union is the "Amcha Yisrael" party led by Ofer Winter, which collapses to only 2.3% support.
Alongside it, many other parties remain outside the Knesset: the "Beit Tzioni - HaMiluimnikim" party approaches the threshold but finishes with 3.0%, and the "New Economic" party with 2.0%. Far behind are "Blue and White" with 0.7%, the "Unity" party with 0.7%, the "A Place for All - Jewish-Arab Partnership" list with 0.5%, the "Ultra-Orthodox Public Party" with 0.4%, and the "Israel First" party which closes the list with only 0.2%.
The poll also checked another political scenario in which Knesset member Tally Gotliv leaves Likud and joins "Otzma Yehudit". Such a move, it turns out, raises Ben Gvir's party to 8 mandates, but draws one mandate from Likud (which drops to 21) and another mandate from the Smotrich and Feiglin list (which drops to 4).
Despite all these internal shifts, the inter-bloc balance remains without a decisive outcome in favor of the right-wing bloc. In a scenario where Smotrich and Feiglin run together, Netanyahu's coalition reaches 49 mandates against 58 mandates for the Zionist opposition bloc, and 13 mandates for the Arab parties.
Even in the scenario where Gotliv moves to "Otzma Yehudit", the change in the blocs is completely minor: Netanyahu's coalition loses a mandate and stands at 48 seats, the Zionist opposition rises to 59 mandates, and the Arab parties maintain their strength with 13 mandates.
