The Erosion of Deterrence: Trump Retreats, Iran Controls the Game

President Donald Trump's late-night announcement on Sunday regarding the cancellation of American strikes against Iran was the fifth time he has threatened military action but retreated to give diplomacy another chance. However, with every additional retreat, American deterrence is eroded, while Iran continues to set the pace of events and shape the regional order.

Despite the President's declarations that the emerging agreement would include the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the Iranian nuclear threat, Tehran has denied this. Iran continues to insist on its control over the strait and even seeks to collect transit fees from vessels. From its perspective, this is a broad strategy designed to turn its geographical advantage in the Strait of Hormuz into a political and strategic lever against the Gulf states.

Control over the strait allows Tehran to exploit the weak point of the Gulf states — their dependence on energy exports, maritime trade, and American security guarantees, thereby increasing its influence on the regional order.

The war has also exposed uncomfortable truths regarding the limitations of American power. For decades, the American military presence and Washington's security commitments served as the basis for regional stability for the Gulf monarchies. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the announcement of the Carter Doctrine in 1980, the United States established itself as the primary external security factor in the Persian Gulf, committing to prevent any external power from gaining control of the region.

The attempts of the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, to reduce tensions with Iran even before the outbreak of the campaign on February 28, illustrated their fear that a prolonged confrontation would harm their economies. Iran identified this weakness and is acting systematically to distance the United States from its immediate vicinity, push it out of its long-standing bases in the Gulf, and limit its military presence to Israel, Jordan, and more distant locations. As part of this strategy, Tehran has increased attacks on American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, including an attack in Jordan that led to the deaths of three American soldiers.

As a result, Donald Trump hesitated to expand the campaign, mainly due to the fear of a broad regional flare-up. Added to this was the influence of Saudi Arabia, and in particular the position of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who acted to reduce the escalation. However, Washington has not yet internalized that the strategic reality around the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally changed. Iran has proven that it is capable of turning control over shipping lanes into a lever of strategic pressure, thereby undermining one of the basic assumptions upon which the American security architecture in the region has relied for decades.

The recurring cycle of American threats alongside retreats in favor of diplomacy does not strengthen deterrence — it erodes it. From Iran's perspective, the message is clear: Donald Trump is not interested in a broad military confrontation, and therefore Washington will prefer almost any opening for diplomatic progress over a return to fighting. As the midterm elections in November approach, the likelihood of a broad American escalation is expected to decrease. However, the central question remains: what is the strategic goal that Washington seeks to achieve?

Donald Trump faces three courses of action:

1. The continuation of the current path of mutual strikes — a situation of "no peace and no war," alongside diplomatic efforts mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.

2. Significant escalation through extensive strikes against critical infrastructure in Iran, and simultaneously limited activity against strategic targets in the Strait of Hormuz area, such as the islands of Kharg or Qeshm. This move carries significant risks of expanding the campaign to a broader regional arena.

3. A return to the framework of a memorandum of understanding. This is the most likely scenario, as it allows Iran to maintain the strategic pressure lever it has created, while Washington will avoid another broad confrontation.

Ultimately, Donald Trump's repeated retreats alongside the lack of a clear strategic goal from Washington erode deterrence and American credibility. Washington's inability to decisively restore deterrence and provide renewed security to its allies in the Gulf has eroded its strategic standing and raised fundamental questions regarding the future of American security commitments in the region.

The author is a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), in the US and Global Arena program.