Grim forecast: Italy's population to shrink by 4 million by 2050

Italy's population is expected to shrink by almost 4 million people by 2050, warns the country's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) in a new report published on Monday. According to the new demographic forecasts reaching until 2080, the negative trend will intensify, posing unprecedented challenges to the country's economic future.

According to the bureau's data, Italy's population, which stood at about 58.9 million residents at the beginning of 2025, will drop to 55 million in 2050. The trend will not stop there, and by 2080 the population is expected to shrink to a low of 45.8 million residents, if no radical change in the trend occurs.

Government efforts and disappointing results

Upon taking office in 2022, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni declared that increasing the birth rate would be at the top of her government's priorities. But despite these declarations, government efforts have yielded only meager results.

The number of births in Italy has been in constant decline since 2008. Last year, the figure dropped to about 355,000 — the lowest number recorded in the country since the unification of Italy in 1861 — only 1.14 children per woman. While the number for healthy population replacement is 2.1 children per woman, Italy is far behind the desired situation, though it is not unique compared to most countries on the continent, which are in a similar situation.

In the National Institute of Statistics, they estimate that the annual number of births will remain relatively stable until 2030, but after that will continue to decline and will stand at about 335,000 births in 2050.

Parallel to the decline in birth rates, the mortality rate in the country is constantly rising as a result of the aging population. The annual number of deaths, which stood at about 652,000 last year, is expected to reach a peak of 869,000 in 2058, when the "baby boom" generation after World War II reaches old age.

Fewer workers, more pensioners: the economy in danger

As a result of low fertility, these demographic changes will completely change the face of society in Italy. ISTAT data indicate that the share of the population aged 65 and over will jump from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% in 2050 — meaning more than a third of the residents will be elderly.

At the same time, a sharp decline is recorded in the percentage of people of working age (ages 15 to 64), with an expected decline from 63.4% today to 55.3% in 2050. The Italian statistical bureau emphasized that the shrinkage in the workforce alongside the sharp jump in the number of pensioners will pose "new and difficult challenges for the economic system and the welfare system."

However, the data show that the demographic decline will not be uniform across the country. Specifically, southern Italy, considered a poorer region, will absorb the hardest blow: the population in the south is expected to plummet from 19.7 million residents in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050. In contrast, in the central and northern regions of Italy, the decline in the number of residents will be more moderate.