Do not underestimate the triple alliance

The Arab and Muslim world is networked with alliances, such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation with 57 countries or the Arab League including 22 countries. Alongside them, there is also the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and it seems that the last few months have proven that even against Iran, which abuses them without a serious response, they are unable to unite. Even the "United Arab Republic," established in 1958 and including Egypt and Syria, lasted only three years. All these alliances did not prevent a single war or a single conflict.

The new alliance between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, with an option to add Egypt, is not the first or the last on the list. These alliances were supposed to create closeness between Muslim and Arab countries. After all, it is the same religion, and in wide regions, the same language and culture. But it seems that even if Israel tries, it will not reach the massive amount of victims seen in wars between and within Arab and Muslim countries. Since the establishment of the state until today, about 12 million people have been killed in the Arab and Muslim world in wars. In the last decade alone, the battles in Libya, Sudan, Yemen, and Syria were not just internal wars. Usually, Arab countries fight for spheres of control within those countries and only intensify the mutual and mass slaughter.

Now a joint defense alliance has been established between three important and powerful countries. Two of them, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, are fighting for the leadership of the Muslim world, and the potential joiner, Egypt, also aspires to the crown of the Arab world. There is no need to underestimate this alliance, because Pakistan is more connected to Iran, while Tehran has so far been the enemy of Saudi Arabia. Turkey under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a Muslim Brotherhood state. Saudi Arabia was once a center of Muslim Brotherhood activity, but in 2014 the movement was outlawed. Saudi Arabia feared that the golem it created itself, global jihad, was about to rise against it and destroy it. Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood movement was founded, also outlawed them as early as 2013. This was the main reason for a decade of tension between Turkey and Egypt.

So what is the meaning of the new coalition? It has the potential for damage to both the USA and Israel. To the USA — because the coalition is a kind of official announcement of disappointment. The war with Iran left the Gulf states wounded and bleeding. The USA failed to eliminate the Shiite monster that aspires to regional hegemony. On the contrary, Iran suffered from unprecedented bombings by the most powerful superpower in the world — and not only did it not blink, but it also exposed the weakness of the USA and its allies in the Gulf. It is possible that Iran is on the verge of economic collapse, but it is strange that a country on the verge of collapse manages to deceive the mighty superpower.

Israel is in trouble because instead of normalization with Saudi Arabia and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the current direction is moving away from normalization. In addition, the huge economic project is on the table, the corridor from India or the Gulf states to Europe — IMEC. Originally, the corridor was intended to pass through Israel, but Turkey now demands that the corridor pass through Syria, continue to it, and from there to Europe. It can be assumed that the new coalition strengthens the Turkish direction. Here is another damage from the Israeli folly that rejected the outstretched hand of Saudi Arabia. True, it was the October 7 massacre by Hamas that was intended to thwart normalization. But why did Israel do exactly what suits Hamas even when, in 2024, Saudi Arabia renewed its desire for normalization? After all, a declaration on a Palestinian state, as Saudi Arabia demanded, is included in the twenty-point agreement that led to the ceasefire with Hamas. So is surrender to the pressure of Turkey and Qatar, the matchmakers of the agreement, more important than a similar declaration in return for Saudi Arabia?

On the military level, the new regional coalition failed even before it was established. Pakistan and Turkey did not lift a finger to protect Saudi Arabia from Iranian bombings, and they are not lifting a finger even in these days, when Iran and/or its proxies continue to harm Saudi Arabia. And yet, it is a coalition with strategic significance. The current government led us to a strategic failure, another one on the list. Perhaps, hopefully, a new government will be able to change something.