The Third Bloc: How the Unification Attempt Crashed

Politics loves photos of festive launches, joint statements, and smiles for the cameras. But the real story happens much earlier — in closed rooms, in phone calls, and in arguments over who will stand first. That is also where, in recent weeks, quite a few attempts to unite the camp that seeks to present an alternative to the Likud and the center were buried.

The central negotiations within the "third bloc" were between Yuli Edelstein and Ayelet Shaked and between Benny Gantz and Dedi Simhi. As first published on Walla, Edelstein and Shaked claimed that if Gantz were first on the list, it would be impossible to attract votes from the right, and the negotiations reached the realms of absurdity. They discussed a triple leadership — Gantz-Simhi-Edelstein — and even a quadruple (!) leadership including Shaked.

Likewise, proposals were raised for a large merger of the four, with additional forces from within Religious Zionism. Every proposal was examined. Gantz agreed to almost everything except giving up the first place, offering at most to share it.

Gilad Erdan, who wanted to establish a party alone at any cost, was not in the loop. Edelstein was the one who eventually made the move from Gantz towards Erdan.

At no stage, despite reports in the media and despite polls that tested this, did Ayelet Shaked consider joining Erdan. As published on Walla, she warned him and Edelstein that they had no chance of passing the electoral threshold. Erdan did not listen and announced today the establishment of a party.

If Erdan and Edelstein are counting on the Gideon Sa'ar case — a Likud man who leaves, establishes a party, and returns afterwards — they might be disappointed. When Sa'ar went out against the Likud, he reached 16 mandates in the polls and then crashed. Erdan and Edelstein are setting out on the road with a mandate and a half on a good day, and beyond that, with an empty treasury, which makes the campaign very difficult.

Many in the Likud believe that Erdan made a terrible mistake. He is a young man, popular in the Likud, with the prestige of having served as an ambassador abroad. He should have sat for one more term patiently, continued to strengthen his status in the party, and then fought for its leadership with good chances. The departure, in their view, will cause him to become a negligible politician instead of taking a leading position ahead of the struggle for the leadership of the country on the day after Netanyahu.

It is hard to believe that Erdan and Edelstein, people with many years of political experience, are embarking on such a suicide mission without an additional action plan. Today was probably the first step on the way to a merger or a crash. We will know the answer by September 8, the deadline for submitting the lists.