The joint Syria-Iraq project that threatens Israel
The aspiration to break the Iranian siege on the Strait of Hormuz has given birth to a series of regional initiatives, including an attempt to revive the old oil pipeline between Kirkuk and the Syrian port of Baniyas. The US administration has expressed support for the project, which involves Chevron and Qatari investors. Israel risks losing its position as a regional energy hub.
News in brief: Iraq and Syria have signed a memorandum of understanding to restore the oil pipeline between Kirkuk and Baniyas. The project is intended to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed due to Iran's war. The US State Department has stated that the project has bilateral and regional strategic importance. Chevron is in talks to join the international consortium that will restore the pipeline. A JISS researcher warns that this Syrian success weakens Israel's potential.
The Strait of Hormuz has become Iran's main weapon in its war against the US and Israel in recent months. The prolonged closure of the strait, which in normal times is used for the passage of a significant volume of global oil trade, is hitting Gulf oil exporters hard and encouraging them to seek alternative routes. In recent weeks, a new project has been taking shape that seeks to revive an old pipeline that would flow Iraqi oil to Europe via Syria, and along the way fill the coffers of the A-Shar regime. This project puts Israel in a dual position: on one hand, it will erode Iran's power and its leverage, and on the other hand, it could harm Israel's potential to become a central hub for energy transport from the Middle East.
Enthusiastic American support
Earlier this month, Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding to restore the historic oil pipeline connecting the oil fields in Kirkuk in northern Iraq to the port of Baniyas on Syria's Mediterranean coast. The pipeline, which is about 800 kilometers long, has been idle since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The signing took place in Washington in the presence of US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and the entire project received the blessing of the US State Department, which in an official statement called it of bilateral and regional strategic importance.
According to the Financial Times, the American oil giant Chevron is in advanced talks to participate in an international consortium that will lead the restoration of the pipeline alongside an American investment firm and a Qatari holding company. While the pipeline is very far from operational, Syria itself is gradually becoming a real axis for flowing Iraqi oil to the West. According to the research firm Kpler, as early as May, trucks carrying Iraqi oil began crossing the border into Syria and transferring the black gold to tankers loaded at the port of Baniyas at a rate of one tanker every 7 to 10 days. Last week, Reuters reported that the first tankers carrying Iraqi oil left the port of Baniyas on their way to the US coast.
Syria will strengthen — Israel will weaken
This Syrian success puts Israel in a dilemma, as explained by Vita Abramov of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS): although any route that breaks the Iranian oil barrier is positive for Israel, the success could also come at its expense. Abramov explains that a direct land oil route from Iraq to the Mediterranean via Syria makes part of the need for alternative routes that were supposed to pass through Israel redundant — primarily various ideas for utilizing the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline infrastructure.
According to Abramov, the damage to Israel directly concerns the map of regional competition: as the Syria of Ahmad A-Shar effectively becomes a central transit state for energy in the Middle East, its economic and political status strengthens. Every dollar of investment flowing to Damascus thanks to this role reduces the economic incentive to develop a competing route that would pass specifically through Israel. The Syrian project is part of a wider race currently underway in the Gulf, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also expanding their own pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. As more countries in the region succeed in diversifying their export routes, Israel may find that it has been left at a crossroads with no passengers.
