Morocco has found Europe's weak point — and Israel is in the picture too | Dr. Anat Hochberg-Marom

The riots that broke out over the weekend in Ceuta and Melilla — the two Spanish enclaves in northern Morocco that constitute the European Union's only land border with Africa — are no longer a local security incident. The collapse of the border in the face of the crossing of more than 50,000 people within a single day (about 70% of Ceuta's population), shortly before the 27th anniversary of King Mohammed VI's accession to the throne, turned the event from a localized humanitarian crisis into a large-scale diplomatic incident.

The event exposed the depth of the rift surrounding the issue of sovereignty and the fragile dependency between Madrid and Rabat. The fact that Morocco does not recognize Spanish sovereignty in the enclaves and demands their return makes them a bone of contention that has existed for decades. Thus, for example, in May 2021, about 8,000 migrants entered Ceuta following acute tension over the Western Sahara issue, after Spain allowed medical treatment for the leader of the Polisario Front.

Beyond managing the immediate emergency, the crisis once again raises the issue of the geopolitical status of the two enclaves integrated into Morocco's socio-economic fabric. Rabat is responsible for curbing migration waves — with a 164% increase in illegal border crossings recorded since the beginning of the year compared to the same period last year — while Spain, and indirectly the European Union, provide financial and political support. This formula leaves Europe exposed to high volatility and policy changes by Morocco.

The crisis in Ceuta, which has been under Spanish control since 1580, illustrates how a small geographical weak point can become a significant geopolitical leverage, and how migration waves are used as a tool of political and economic pressure within the framework of broad regional conflicts. The consequences go far beyond the border itself and cause a rift in the European Union: the Italian government's decision to close its air and sea borders to Spain, alongside calls in Europe to consider freezing the Schengen Agreement or even expelling Spain from it, illustrate the depth of the interstate crisis.

Beyond the damage to trust between Morocco, Spain, and the European Union, Ceuta is located in the Strait of Gibraltar — a central trade artery and one of the most sensitive geostrategic junctions in the world. Any tremor in the region immediately raises concerns regarding Europe's security, NATO's supply chains, and the security of shipping routes in the Mediterranean, especially at a time when geopolitical tension is rising.

Between Europe and the USA

The current crisis stems from a combination of several factors, including the activity of human smuggling networks, confusion surrounding Spanish immigration policy, the cost of living, and a lack of economic opportunities in northern Morocco. It has become an unprecedented political and diplomatic test for Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who finds himself in increasing isolation. While most of the Union's countries are moving to the right and adopting a tough line inspired by the aggressive immigration policy promoted by the Donald Trump administration, Sánchez adheres to the opposite approach of granting legal status to undocumented workers — with the intention of strengthening the economy and providing an answer to Spain's aging population. This gap has made Spain a target for sharp criticism from its partners in Europe.

At the same time, Madrid is dealing with an open front against Washington: its refusal to accede to the US President's entreaties to join the international coalition during the Hormuz crisis caused great anger in the American administration, and Donald Trump's verbal attacks against Sánchez portray Spain as a weak link in the West. In a situation where Sánchez is isolated on the continent and without American backing, he is forced to manage one of the most explosive migration crises of the last decade, while trapped between two power centers.

For Morocco, this is a window of opportunity: in Rabat, they identify his political weakness and understand that exerting pressure at the border is a particularly effective political tactic both against Europe and against the USA. All this while the event itself continues to be a humanitarian challenge and a test of border security.

These developments have direct consequences for Israel, especially in light of Morocco's status in the Euro-Muslim arena, the tension with Spain, and the sensitivity accompanying the Abraham Accords. The crisis highlights the importance of Morocco as one of the strongest economies in Africa and as a logistical and industrial center (especially in the automotive and aviation fields, thanks to the Tanger-Med port) with a GDP of 182.3 billion dollars and growth of 4.8% in 2025.

Morocco, the axis connecting Africa to Europe and the Mediterranean to the Atlantic Ocean, is perceived as a stable, pragmatic, and pro-Western partner. Any damage to its status vis-à-vis Spain or pushing it to adopt a tough defensive line could encourage parts of the Moroccan public to adopt anti-Western narratives — a shift that could undermine the delicate balance in Rabat-Jerusalem relations and harm the diplomatic room for maneuver of Israel and the USA.

At the same time, Morocco continues to establish its status as a regional power in the field of renewable energy — as illustrated by the World Bank financing agreement in the amount of 265 million dollars signed last July — and while it is undergoing digital transformation and extensive infrastructure upgrading ahead of the 2030 World Cup.

With wisdom and discretion

The continued stability of the Moroccan regime is a strategic asset of the highest order for Israel and a fundamental condition for deepening the security, tourism, economic, and technological ties and cooperation between the countries. Since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, there has been a jump of about 300% in the volume of bilateral trade, which reached 227.5 million dollars in 2025, alongside a significant expansion in joint ventures in the fields of innovation and investment. However, internal tremors — such as the strengthening of conservative elements, social frustration, or public pressure surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — could reduce Rabat's room for maneuver and harden its position towards Israel.

On the other hand, if the Moroccan leadership continues to see normalization as a lever for strengthening its international status, for attracting foreign investment in the fields of energy and infrastructure, and for establishing its regional role, the partnership may expand and deepen. For Israel, Morocco is a central anchor in North Africa and a strategic partner of growing importance.

Responsible risk management requires close monitoring of the internal dynamics in Morocco and regional tensions — including with Spain and the European Union — adaptation of diplomatic messages, diversification of cooperation channels, and maintaining high sensitivity towards local public opinion. The deepening of the crisis could accelerate the strengthening of the right on the continent and exacerbate the discourse on the migration issue, something that could indirectly affect the nature of the European discourse towards Israel and the complexity of the political arena.

Despite the conspiracy theories and speculations in the media regarding "Israeli involvement" in the crisis, Israel must leverage the location and timing of the event to highlight Morocco as a regional anchor of stability. This is a window of opportunity for expanding concrete cooperation in the fields of security (Israel, the second largest arms supplier to the kingdom after the USA, is responsible for about 24% of its defense procurement worth a total of about 2 billion dollars since 2021), cyber, infrastructure, technology, water, and agriculture — steps that will establish the deep strategic interests and the shared historical affinity between the two countries.

However, Jerusalem must act with wisdom and maximum discretion. Quiet moves behind the scenes will serve as a safety net for the stability of the Moroccan regime, protect foreign investments, and Israeli infrastructure projects on the ground. Instead of settling for publicized statements, Israel must pour practical content into the relations through civil and economic projects that directly affect the Moroccan public and strengthen the legitimacy for cooperation.

In the long term, the ability to exploit opportunities precisely during a period of crisis and uncertainty and to build deep partnerships that are not dependent on political fluctuations are what will ensure the durability of the Abraham Accords and turn Morocco from an important regional axis into a stable, unassailable, and critical strategic pillar for Israel's national security.