The graph does not lie: The truth about housing prices, Treasury data, and Tidhar reports
The average apartment price rose by 3.7% this year, the average mortgage continues to rise, and Tidhar reports point to a jump in revenue and profit, while the company previously spoke of a price crash and is now predicting a market recovery.
Some commentators and economists say that housing prices have fallen by a double-digit percentage. This is, of course, a figure far from reality when looking at the average. It may be that in a specific project prices have fallen, but to say that housing prices have fallen by 15%, or as Ori Levin, CEO of Tidhar, claimed (and retracted this week with an estimate of a market recovery) — by 20%? These are figures that do not correspond with the numbers we see in the market.
Factually, the average mortgage in July is very close to an all-time high. It stands at 1.117 million shekels, after climbing to a peak of 1.129 million shekels in March. Let us recall — the average mortgage is not the median mortgage. There are many people who take very low mortgages. This figure also includes discounted apartments, where in most cases buyers take lower mortgages.
It can be seen that the volume of mortgages is at a peak and the number of mortgage arrears is decreasing. Part of this is, of course, related to the interest rate — people are refinancing their mortgage, it is considered a new mortgage, and therefore the volume continues to jump as the interest rate decreases. If it drops again in September, it is likely that we will see the volume continue to rise, at least seasonally.
There is talk that housing prices in 2022 were much higher, but the truth is far from that. Fact: the average mortgage is higher and this is happening because housing prices are higher. They rose in 2024, while the declines in 2023 and 2025 were lower than the increase of 2024. If we rely on these data, it can be said that housing prices from 2023 to today have almost not changed — and this is an exceptional figure after a 30% increase over two years in 2021-2022.
Yesterday we saw in the Tidhar reports that the decline that Levin spoke about was not reflected in the numbers. Tidhar is selling some of its projects at higher prices. This is a fact — this is also happening in Tel Aviv. The reports also point to a sharp jump in revenue and profit.
Let us recall that the mortgage data also correlates with the average price per apartment, which stands at 2.435 million shekels — 3.7% more compared to the first quarter of the year. Speculators claim that this is happening because of massive purchases in the luxury market, but in the same breath, there are those who explain that "the luxury market is dead." The graph does not lie: the average mortgage is rising, the average apartment price is rising, and the Central Bureau of Statistics data show that the housing market is recovering. These are data that do not align with the claim of a double-digit average decline in all projects in Israel.
As we published earlier this week, the Treasury is quick to pull out data on transaction cancellations, but does not update when they are sold to a third party. That is, an apartment that a buyer gave up on and that rolled over to a third party is considered by the Treasury to be a cancelled transaction.
On the other hand, the Treasury continues to echo the number of unsold apartments, while in most cases these are apartments that have been granted a building permit, but have not started to be built and have not even been marketed. The Ministry of Construction and Housing estimates that there are close to 70,000 such apartments, of which over half are in the initial stages of construction, out of a stock of 84,000.
