The Great Primaries Poll: The Battle for Succession in Likud Has Begun

A new poll by the Agam Institute, conducted ahead of the Likud primaries, points to a possible shake-up in the composition of the list for the next Knesset. In a scenario where Likud wins 30 seats — a result that the pollsters emphasize is significantly higher than current forecasts — only about 20 out of the approximately 40 current Likud MKs and ministers are expected to continue to the next Knesset. The poll also reveals significant gaps between the preferences of Likud members and those of the party's voters.

According to the poll's simulation, veteran ministers and MKs, including David Amsalem, Miki Zohar, and David Bitan, are being pushed to lower spots, while other candidates are strengthening. The researchers define the trend as a dramatic change in the Likud list, where veterans are being pushed aside in favor of new faces. However, they emphasize that the members' data reflects the preferences of "free" voters and does not weigh organized voting patterns — a particularly significant factor in Likud primaries.

One of the prominent conclusions presented by the pollsters concerns the recent reserved spots: according to the report, the reserved spots "saved" Haim Katz and Gideon Sa'ar and kept Israel Katz in the top ten. It is important to emphasize that Sa'ar is not ranked in the poll as a candidate in the primaries; the determination regarding him is a conclusion of the researchers as part of the list simulation after incorporating the reserved spots. Haim Katz, on the other hand, is ranked only 35th in the raw ranking among party members.

Members with Ohana, voters with Barkat

On the question of leadership "the day after Netanyahu," Israel Katz is in sixth place among party members with 10.3%, compared to fourth place and 11.3% among Likud voters. The pollsters attribute his weakening among party members to a sense of frustration with the security campaign. Following the reserved spot, Katz is placed in the list simulation in fifth place.

Sharp differences between the members and the Likud voting public also emerge from the top ranking. Amir Ohana leads among party members with 73%, followed by Tally Gotliv with 70% and Boaz Bismuth with 69.2%. Ohana also leads among loyal Likud voters, but among the undecided and those leaving, Nir Barkat stands first. Gotliv and Shlomo Karhi are stronger among the base of party members, while Barkat, Yariv Levin, and Miki Zohar enjoy higher popularity among the voting public.

The gap continues in the race for the day after Netanyahu: Ohana is the preferred successor among party members with 22.9%, while among Likud voters, Barkat leads with 19%. Among members, Gotliv is ranked second with 15.6%, and Barkat is only fourth with 10.8%.

Members want a "full right-wing" government — voters are more open to unity

On the question of the nature of the next government, the differences are even clearer. 66.1% of members prefer the next coalition to be a "full right-wing government," compared to 45.1% of Likud voters. Conversely, 54.9% of voters prefer a unity government with the center-right, compared to only 33.9% of members. The pollsters see in these figures, alongside the differences in personal preferences, an explanation for the strategic importance of reserved spots as a tool for expanding the voting audience beyond the base of party members.

On the issue of conscription, the picture is different: a clear majority in both audiences supports increasing the rate of recruits to the IDF, even at the expense of Torah study and a coalition crisis — 66.8% of members and 80.4% of Likud voters.

The poll was conducted by Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute between August 6 and 10 among 1,062 Likud members with voting rights, and in parallel among more than a thousand Likud voters.