The danger to Israel and the possibility of Donald Trump becoming a "lame duck": A guide to the midterm elections
About three months before the midterm elections, the likely scenario will produce a "split Congress" that will make it difficult for the president to advance his policies. The Epstein affair, tariffs, and the war with Iran have left the president at a low point in public opinion. The Democratic Party is divided between a moderate establishment and an anti-Israel progressive wing - and for Israel, this is a decisive battle.
About three months before the midterm elections in November, the picture in the USA is converging on a split scenario: the Democrats have become favorites to take over the House of Representatives, but the Republicans still hold a narrow lead in the Senate. Midterm elections are traditionally a referendum on the president's term, and they have the power to create a completely different dynamic in the second half of the term.
For now, Donald Trump controls the House and the Senate and enjoys a conservative majority in the Supreme Court - dream conditions for advancing his policies. The Republicans' nightmare scenario could turn him into a "lame duck" with two full years left in the Oval Office: his legislative agenda will be halted, House committees will launch a wide-ranging investigation into the administration's conduct, and the Democratic Party is already talking about the possibility of opening impeachment proceedings, even if there is no ability to complete them.
The wind is now blowing to the left. The reason is not enthusiasm for the Democratic brand, but the president's weakness after a year and a half of a turbulent term. The imposition of global tariffs last spring, the Epstein files, the seizure of his sector in the winter, and finally the war with Iran and its impact on the global economy have left the president at an unprecedented low for this stage of his term. Only 35% of Americans are satisfied with Donald Trump's performance. 63% are dissatisfied.
The cost of living remains the central issue for 45% of respondents, and the public now gives Democrats a clear advantage in handling it - an arena where Republicans were traditionally stronger. The Trumpist MAGA brand has become a burden: according to polls, 59% of independent voters say that identifying a candidate with the movement will reduce their chances of voting for him. Republican strategists are already formulating a new line for the elections: "Trump policy, less Trump" - focusing on the border, crime, and taxes, and minimizing joint appearances with the president.
Despite the advantage that polls give the Democrats, the turnaround is not certain. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats need a few victories to take over the House, but the task is harder than it seems. During the last year, the Republicans - encouraged by Donald Trump - initiated a redistricting move that gave them an advantage in five seats that are expected to remain "red," and raised the bar for a Democratic turnaround to eight seats.
The battlegrounds are in the suburbs and swing districts, where Republicans are defending most of the close seats in the arena. The Democrats have more potential targets than the Republicans, but also less room for error: if the Democratic momentum weakens in the coming months, it may be enough to keep control in Donald Trump's hands.
Key races
The Senate is a much harder story for the Democratic Party. The Republicans have a 53 to 47 advantage, and since Vice President J.D. Vance will decide any 50-50 tie, the Democrats need an addition of four seats. The task requires them not only to defend their hold on the blue states but also to capture seats in states where Donald Trump won by a double-digit margin in the elections two years ago. Among the states currently defined as close, two races illustrate well the two central narratives of the elections: the identity crisis of the Democratic Party, and the price that Republicans are paying for their loyalty to Donald Trump.
The first race is Michigan, a swing state that Donald Trump won in the elections two years ago. In the Democratic primaries, Abdul El-Sayed - a progressive anti-Israel candidate - won by a narrow margin over moderate House member Haley Stevens. However, the Democratic primaries do not indicate a full progressive takeover - in Missouri and Washington, for example, establishment candidates won - but rather a party that is still looking for its identity after the loss to Donald Trump two years ago. In this sense, the elections are also a litmus test ahead of the 2028 elections. In the moderate camp, governors and senior figures like Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro are building their support base on the argument that only pragmatism that strives for the center will return the White House. In the progressive camp, on the other hand, they hope that a victory for candidates like El-Sayed in swing states will prove that it is possible to reach power even with a clear progressive, and even anti-Israel, line.
The second race is in Texas, where a Democratic senator has not been elected for almost four decades. Last May, a candidate supported by Donald Trump, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, won the Republican primary against veteran Senator John Cornyn. This was part of a national campaign by the president to oust Republicans who are not "disciplined" enough to his dictates.
Now Paxton, who carries a bag of scandals, will face Democrat James Talarico, who is already leading him in the polls by a small margin. A Republican loss could turn out to be an especially expensive mistake and greatly damage Donald Trump's status within the party and present him as an electoral burden, as well as everyone who is identified with him.
Impact on Israel
For Israel, the midterm elections and the composition of Congress could be a watershed moment in relations with the USA. A scenario in which Donald Trump loses the House and the Senate, and the progressive wave in the Democratic Party proves itself electorally, could turn the worrying fingers against aid to Israel - which have been raised more than once in the current term - into a real danger to the country's security.
