The unusual figure that could signal an unusual election campaign
The State of Israel is heading to elections, and the 'Mashrokit' (Whistle) of Globes brings the latest polls from all media outlets. Who is strengthening, who is weakening, and how does it affect the balance of power between the camps? And this time: nothing new? Perhaps that is exactly the novelty.
The 'Poll of Polls' of Globes returns. Israel is heading to elections, and we will accompany the campaign this time as well. We will bring the latest polls from the leading media outlets and examine who is strengthening, who is weakening, and who is hovering around the electoral threshold.
What are the data? Similar to the previous week, this time too, the Likud has 25, Yesh led by Eisenkot 23, and Yahad led by Bennett 12. The Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu have 10 each.
United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit have 8 mandates each, Hadash-Ta'al has 6, and Ra'am and the Religious Zionism party have 5 each. Remaining below the electoral threshold: the party of Tropper and Hendel, Blue and White led by Gantz, and the new party led by Erdan and Edelstein.
What is the conclusion? The opposition bloc without the Arab parties remains with 56 mandates in the poll average, the Arab parties are still with 11, and the coalition bloc remains with 54.
Behind the numbers: If we have become accustomed to a certain static nature in the picture of the blocs, this week we are witnessing an event that could be much more unique: static nature at the party level as well. Almost all parties remained with the same number of mandates as last week, and even if there are changes, they are expressed mainly in the digits after the decimal point.
Why is this more unique? As we have shown in the past, when looking at the blocs, the polls usually reflect a picture quite similar to what happens eventually in the elections. But when you 'zoom in' and look at each party separately — that is where the gaps grow. As Dr. Mina Tzemach explained to us, this is due to the fact that at a certain stage, voters have already made the decision which bloc to choose, but they are still debating which specific list to vote for. Therefore, it will be interesting to follow in the coming weeks to see if this time the specific preferences of the Israeli voter will be more sharpened.
The additional figure: Although in Israel people vote for lists and not candidates, it seems that the question that most occupies Israeli politics is actually personal: who will be the next Prime Minister of the State of Israel? Every week, the polls seek to trace the will of public opinion and ask the respondents about the degree of suitability for the premiership.
And the answer? Depends on who you ask — or actually: depends on who is asking. In a direct confrontation between the leading candidates — Benjamin Netanyahu and Eisenkot — both the Kan News poll and the Channel 14 News poll give Netanyahu the lead, with a gap of 7-10%. In contrast, in the polls of Channel 12 News, Channel 13 News, and Maariv — Eisenkot leads by a gap of 5-13%.
That is, we see quite a large variance between the polls in estimating public preference regarding the identity of the Prime Minister — with the differences being sharper than the mandate data of the blocs. However, it is important to remember that it is precisely this last figure that will determine in Israel which of the figures will hold the reins of power at the end of the year. The conclusion: as attractive as these 'head-to-head' infographics are, these numbers should be taken in the right proportions.
