Netanyahu's bloc in danger: While Ben Gvir committed to sitting with the PM, Smotrich evaded

As the elections approach, a question arises that sounds almost surreal: Can Bezalel Smotrich, considered one of Benjamin Netanyahu's closest partners over the last decade, still consider sitting under a "change government" led by Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett, provided that the settlement movement is protected and that Ra'am and "The Democrats" do not enter the coalition?

For Smotrich, the settlements in Judea and Samaria are not just one policy item among many - they are the heart of his political identity. He repeatedly defines his activity as Finance Minister in the current government around a policy aimed at regulating and expanding the settlements to the east and west, north and south, around the "hilltop pioneers" and the agricultural farms. In the past term, Smotrich invested billions of shekels in the settlements, established new communities, and supported the agricultural farms in a way never seen before.

This is exactly the point that allows one to ask: if the ideology guiding him is the preservation of the Greater Land of Israel and not personal loyalty to Netanyahu - is there a scenario where he would prefer a right-wing-statist bloc that will not evacuate a single settlement, over sitting in the opposition while a center-left government might evacuate settlements in exchange for a political settlement?

Smotrich refused to answer

We approached Smotrich and asked him: In the event that Netanyahu's bloc does not achieve 61 mandates, and the other bloc does - would Smotrich agree to enter the government instead of Yair Golan, if he received a guarantee that the settlements would not be touched? Smotrich refused to answer. Unlike Smotrich, Itamar Ben Gvir answered our question on the subject without hesitation: "We will sit only in a right-wing government led by Netanyahu." It seems that for Ben Gvir, for whom the settlements are important but not at the top of his priorities, it is clear that it is better to sit in the opposition and preserve the bloc, even if the price is center-left rule.

We note that currently, in practice, Smotrich is not only not hinting at a willingness to sit under Eisenkot - he is building his entire election strategy on fear-mongering about this scenario. In a sharp attack recently, he warned right-wing voters of a "giant fraud," and claimed that behind Eisenkot's statesmanlike image hides a dangerous left-wing government that the left will not shy away from any means to establish.

He went a step further and claimed that such a government would dismantle the farms built in Judea and Samaria, expel Jews from their homes, and dismantle Israel's "security belt." However, upon deeper inspection - almost all of Smotrich's publications against Eisenkot are not against the man himself, and not even against his party, but mainly against the emerging partnership with Yair Golan's "Democrats" or Mansour Abbas's Ra'am.

In addition, the partnership with Netanyahu has not always gone down smoothly for Smotrich. History shows that Smotrich does not shy away from attacking Netanyahu sharply when he feels he is misleading him. In recordings revealed in 2022, in the midst of negotiations to form a government, Smotrich was heard calling Netanyahu a "liar, son of a liar," claiming that Netanyahu himself conducted contacts with Ra'am and Mansour Abbas while denying it outwardly. These were not one-time remarks - Smotrich described himself there as someone who opposed cooperation with Arabs out of a principled stance, even when it cost him mandates, while Netanyahu, according to him, was willing to "pay any price" politically.

Likewise, in August of last year, against the backdrop of disagreements in cabinet decisions regarding the progress of the war in Gaza, Smotrich wrote that he had lost faith in Netanyahu: "I estimated that we were striving for a decisive outcome and victory. I have lost the faith that the Prime Minister can and wants to lead the IDF there."

These cases are proof that the relationship between the two, even at the peak of cooperation, includes a deep layer of distrust and principled criticism - something that could theoretically erupt again if Smotrich feels that Netanyahu is endangering what is most important to him. On the day after the elections, if Netanyahu does not have 61 votes loyal to him - it is possible that we will see their partnership finally dissolve.