American Pressure Failed: Iran's Yemeni Move on the Path to Controlling the Middle East

It shuffled the cards: Iran managed in the last week to create a reality that forced the entire region to relate to it differently. This is thanks to the way it operated and connected the Houthis to the war effort.

The past week, which began with American strikes against Iran and the question of expanding the fighting, ended with an American decision to unilaterally cease the initiated attacks—a decision that also brought Iran to minimize its actions.

The American decision comes after Iran expanded its responses to the countries of the region, not only the nearby Gulf states, but mainly to Jordan, where it exacted a heavy price from the American forces, leading to unusual reactions. The systematic firing of ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, in total volumes of hundreds of munitions during 13 consecutive days of response, testifies that the Iranian response systems are in a state of immediate readiness for action, and the means of warfare are available and ready for use.

Attack as a leading strategy

Iran's rehabilitation and recovery process, which is faster than any estimate that existed after Operation "Roar of the Lion," is reflected in its ability to respond offensively to any threat it feels. After all, only someone who has a stock of munitions and capabilities in their possession can choose escalation and military response as a leading strategy.

Beyond that, Iran managed in the past week to bring the region into a different reality, while posing significant dilemmas for the way the campaign continues to be managed. They managed to connect the Houthis to their struggle and bring them to take an active part in the strategic reality of blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with control over the Strait of Hormuz, to cut off the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia from maritime exit routes—in addition to renewing the armed struggle between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

Together with Iran, the Houthis are setting up a wall of resistance that changes the rules of the game in the region—placing Iran in the center, managing to divert attention from Iran alone to the Yemen region, and from the Strait of Hormuz to shipping routes in general. This Iranian strategy was managed carefully and, in my opinion, is not accidental, but a planned move that brought the USA to recalculate its route.

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USA at a crossroads

Iran managed to bring the USA to a significant dilemma, perhaps the most central since the beginning of the campaign two years ago. First, the understanding that daily attacks against Iranian targets might be eroding the force by the very fact of the hits, but are not really bringing results on the ground. Not in undermining the regime, not in Iranian flexibility regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and at the moment at least—not in flexibility in returning to negotiations and agreed-upon principles.

Second, the USA, together with Israel, is watching the rapid rehabilitation process of Iran and the return of entire systems to functional competence a few months after the end of Operation "Roar of the Lion," alongside new discoveries regarding the intentions and capabilities of the nuclear project ("Mountain of Spells" is only one component in this process). All these brought US President Donald Trump to recalculate his route. The last two weeks forced the US military to invest many defense resources to prevent, or at least minimize, Iranian hits on infrastructure, assets, and American personnel stationed throughout the Middle East.

Whether the American decision to stop the daily attacks and the intention to expand the response until returning to war is temporary or long-term, it does not change the fact that in the current situation, Iran is the big winner, and the current reality serves only it.

Sooner or later, the USA and the entire region will be required to deal with the Iranian threat; otherwise, this is an acceptance of a reality of an extreme military regime that controls the Strait of Hormuz, restores its military and nuclear capabilities, and continues to operate a network of proxies in the region while strengthening the connection and dependence between all the factors.

Yemeni dance

The entire region has entered a waiting period. It is dangerous, explosive, with potential for miscalculation—and above all, an attempt by each side to fix a reality that serves its interest. For Israel as a direct participant, this is an impossible reality.

The author is Brigadier General (res.) Zvika Haimovich, former commander of the Aerial Defense Array and currently a strategic consultant.