Kawhi Leonard's trade to Toronto is stuck: Will the investigation drag on until 2027?

The trade that is supposed to bring Kawhi Leonard back to the Toronto Raptors remains frozen due to an NBA investigation against the Los Angeles Clippers and the star on suspicion of circumventing salary cap rules. According to reports in the United States, the process could drag on until 2027 if the parties do not accept the league's findings and decide to turn to arbitration and appeals.

Leonard was traded to Toronto in a deal agreed upon on June 30, under which the Clippers are supposed to receive Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, two unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a pick swap option in 2027, and two second-round picks. Despite the agreement, both teams halted the completion of the deal pending a decision in the investigation.

In Toronto, there is concern that completing the trade will require them to bear any penalty imposed on Leonard, including suspension, a fine, or even the cancellation of his contract. "The Raptors were asked if they were willing to take on the risk that something would happen to Leonard after the investigation concluded, and they are not willing to do that," explained ESPN reporter Ramona Shelburne.

The Canadian club even released an official statement clarifying that they are still interested in bringing back Leonard, who led them to a championship in 2019, but will wait for the investigation to conclude. The fear in Toronto also grew following the Terry Rozier affair, during which Miami was left with a player who exited the league after becoming entangled in a federal investigation.

The investigation began following claims by journalist Pablo Torre that the Clippers used the company Aspiration to make additional payments to Leonard through an advertising contract that did not actually require significant activity from him. The suspicion is that the agreement was used to transfer money outside of his official contract, thereby allowing the Clippers to circumvent the salary cap.

The Clippers and owner Steve Ballmer continue to deny the allegations. The club claims that they were also defrauded by Aspiration founder Joe Sandberg, who was convicted of fraud and sent to prison. At the same time, it was reported that the investigation has been expanded to include another sponsorship deal and an investment involving Leonard, his uncle and advisor Dennis Robertson, and his former agent.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said earlier this month that he expects the investigation to conclude during the summer, but the league's collective bargaining agreement allows the Clippers and the players' union to demand arbitration if they do not accept the decision. Another possibility is an appeal and even a legal process, which could delay the decision by many months.

Despite this, the assessment within the league is that the trade will still be completed before the start of training camp. It is possible that Toronto will demand to change the terms, receive back one of the draft picks, or add protections to the picks to minimize the damage in case Leonard is suspended.

The possible punishment could include fines, a suspension of Leonard, and the loss of draft picks by the Clippers. The last time the NBA punished a team for circumventing the salary cap was in 2000, when the Minnesota Timberwolves lost five first-round picks following a side agreement with Joe Smith. The penalty was later reduced to three picks.

Leonard, who celebrated his 35th birthday in June, recorded 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.8 steals per game last season. Despite his age and medical history, Toronto still sees him as the player who can return the club to contention in the East.