The data that should worry Netanyahu: how many Likud voters will actually move to Erdan and Edelstein? | Exclusive

The Agam Institute survey, led by Dr. Nimrod Nir, examined the potential support for the new party of Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein among Likud members and the party's voters. The gap between them is significant: only 3.9% of members attribute a high probability to voting for the new party, compared to 14.8% of Likud voters. Among Likud members, opposition to the move is particularly sharp: 78.6% replied that they would "definitely" not vote for the new party. Another 8.3% defined the probability of doing so as very low, 9.2% as medium, and only 3.9% as high.

Among all Likud voters, a higher willingness to consider the new party was recorded. 59.7% say they will definitely not vote for the Erdan-Edelstein party, and 13.9% define the probability of doing so as very low. On the other hand, 11.6% place it at a medium level of probability, and 14.8% attribute a high probability to the possibility that they will vote for the new party. The rate of those who attribute a high probability to voting for Erdan and Edelstein among Likud voters is almost four times higher than their rate among members.

Another question in the survey dealt with the attitude of Likud members toward the gaps between the mandate polls published in the media. 52.7% believe that the "true data" is that the right-wing and Haredi bloc is about to win the election, compared to only 8.2% who believe that the true data is that the bloc is currently behind.

29.5% of members replied: "I don't believe in anything, not in any poll," and another 9.6% are not sure or do not know. The data points to high opposition among Likud members to the new political project of Erdan and Edelstein, alongside the belief of most of them in the victory of the bloc. Among the broader public of Likud voters, there is a greater willingness to consider voting for the new party.