Joint List formation pushes the change bloc further from government formation

The "Today" poll conducted this weekend confirms a long-standing truth: there is no political player whose entry could dramatically shift the bloc dynamics or open new avenues for forming a government.

Brigadier General (res.) Ofer Winter, who is set to announce the formation of a new right-wing party next week, is viewed as the last potential figure capable of breaking the current deadlock. However, it appears that while Winter clears the electoral threshold, his support comes exclusively from the existing right-wing bloc. His 4 projected mandates are drawn from Likud, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, and Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit.

This is disappointing news for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who hoped a new party would reclaim right-wing votes from the opposition. A "big bang" shift in the political landscape seems unlikely in the near term.

The opposition maintains a clear advantage, with the right-wing bloc holding only 51 mandates, while Likud lost an additional mandate this week. Conversely, the formation of the Joint Arab List pushes the change bloc further away from a Zionist majority, leaving them with only 56 mandates excluding Arab parties.

The Joint List itself now holds 8 mandates, bringing total Arab representation, including Ra'am, to 13—a level not seen since the 2019–2020 election cycles. Within Arab society, the assessment is that this trend will continue, further distancing the opposition from a 61-seat Zionist majority.

Meanwhile, the "third bloc," which claims it could break the deadlock and lead to a unity government, remains in a dismal state. None of its parties are clearing the electoral threshold, and even with Ofer Winter’s entry, their combined strength barely reaches the threshold for Knesset entry. A large majority of voters in both the coalition and the opposition believe these parties must merge with larger factions to avoid wasting votes.

Regarding the recent Likud primaries, their national impact has been lower than expected. Only about 14% of the public believe the list might harm Likud's electoral chances. For Netanyahu, the primaries served primarily as damage control rather than a strategy to attract new voters.

Paradoxically, while most of the public believes the elections will yield a clear decision, they simultaneously fear that Israel will be dragged into repeated election cycles. It seems the public doubts the longevity of any narrow government that might be formed.

Poll conductor: Kantar Institute, led by Dudi Hassid.

Data collection date: August 19–20, 2026.

Respondents: 553 (men and women aged 18+).

Maximum sampling error: 4.2%.