Putin's fear: "They will hang me"
Sources told The Economist that Vladimir Putin fears that ending the war without the Donbas region would put his life in danger. Public support is eroding and the mood is gloomy, but Putin is considering mobilizing 300,000–400,000 more people. At the same time, he appeared today at a political summit and received a "reprimand" from Narendra Modi, who called on him to move "from endless war to ending the war."
After a week of vigorous reports about a dramatic escalation approaching in the war, centered on the CIA director's visit to Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived today, Monday, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. He met there with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and said that Moscow is "on the path" to resolving the conflict in Ukraine, without elaborating.
"They will hang me," Vladimir Putin told his associates at one stage of the war, according to sources close to the Kremlin cited today in the British newspaper The Economist. According to the report, the Russian president believes that stopping the war without achieving even the minimum goal, the conquest of the entire Donbas region, would pose a danger to his personal security. The newspaper does not provide further details about the conversation in which the words were allegedly said, but they are interesting in themselves because until now Vladimir Putin has not been quoted speaking about his fear for his personal security.
According to the sources, in view of the stalemate in the war, he intends to mobilize 300,000–400,000 people. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Russian army is conducting exercises to test its readiness for another wave of mobilization, the first since 2022.
One of the problems troubling the Kremlin, writes The Economist, is the loss of the public's passive consent. Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and warehouses, as well as network blockages, have disrupted the peaceful routine that allowed Russians to ignore the war.
According to a survey by the independent research institute Levada Center, 57% of the public believe that the situation in the country has become "tense" due to losses at the front, mobilization, drone attacks, and the lack of prospects.
In the Russian elite, the article notes, the mood is even gloomier.
"There is a growing feeling that the king is naked," a representative of the elite told the British newspaper. Another interlocutor said that the issue is not so much about the state of the economy or the lack of military successes, but about the realization that the war has taken five years, whatever the result may be. Therefore, from the Kremlin's point of view, continuing the war by inertia is out of the question, as it only wastes economic resources and erodes political power.
Who is Vladimir Putin afraid of? The "patriotic" segment of the population, sincere nationalists, pro-war bloggers, and volunteers, which has strengthened significantly during the war. A senior Kremlin official told The Washington Post a year ago that among this public there are those who are very unhappy with the rapprochement with the US, and Reuters reported at the time that the security services would have to keep an eye on it because of dissatisfaction with the results of the war.
In fact, Vladimir Putin has already dealt with one of the most senior nationalist "patriots." Igor Strelkov (Girkin), a former FSB officer who led the "separatism" in the Ukrainian Donetsk region in 2014, began to sharply criticize the Ministry of Defense in the very first year of the war and found himself behind bars. He was arrested in July 2023, sentenced to four years in prison for inciting extremism, and has not yet been released.
Meeting with allies
Today, Vladimir Putin met in Bishkek with two of his key allies. Xi Jinping told him that relations between the countries have become "more solid." Vladimir Putin replied that "cooperation is developing successfully on all fronts." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the war in Ukraine was discussed "only in passing."
However, the meeting comes a week after a Bloomberg report that more factors in Russia estimate that Vladimir Putin may eventually turn to tactical nuclear weapons, and against the backdrop of statements that it is Beijing that is blocking this possibility for him. Finnish President Alexander Stubb told the German Bild yesterday that the Chinese Foreign Minister, who visited him in the summer, replied to him on the issue: "We will never let this happen," and in his opinion, this is a "fairly effective deterrent."
In July, Volodymyr Zelensky said that China responded to the nuclear discourse in Moscow "clearly and firmly, and even in the form of an ultimatum."
In this case, too, Vladimir Putin received a "lesson" from the Indian Prime Minister. "It is time to move from endless war to ending the war," Narendra Modi told him, adding that every day of war sets humanity back and that a quick peaceful solution is "humanity's call, and that is India's message."
If he does decide to escalate, Vladimir Putin will have to ensure that his security services do not miss any social unrest. The central one is the FSB, the Russian equivalent of the Shin Bet, and these things are difficult to reconcile with the assessment of CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who, according to Axios, concluded at the end of his visit to Moscow that FSB head Alexander Bortnikov is a factor that could help revive the diplomatic effort.
In The Economist article, a close associate of Vladimir Putin is quoted as estimating that the CIA director's visit to Moscow last Tuesday was interpreted by the Russian president as a sign of weakness. One does not need to look far for a precedent: in November 2021, the then-CIA director William Burns visited Moscow to warn against the invasion of Ukraine. At least then, Vladimir Putin was not impressed.
