"They will take serious steps": Haim Ramon warns of possible moves by Bennett and Lieberman
Ahead of the elections, Haim Ramon estimates that no bloc will reach 61 seats, and that Eisenkot will be able to form a government with the external support of the Arab parties, while Netanyahu will remain without a majority.
Haim Ramon, former Deputy Prime Minister, spoke on the 103fm radio program regarding the latest political developments on the eve of the elections.
Ramon is unimpressed by the newly formed parties, claiming their chances of passing the electoral threshold are slim. "Most of these party fragments will continue to watch the Knesset only through the Knesset channel; there is almost no chance for all these parties to pass the threshold. Ultimately, they will influence the election results by failing to pass," Ramon stated.
He believes Netanyahu's chances of reaching 61 seats are slim to non-existent. "In previous elections, the party realistically received 61-62 seats, but due to all the mistakes made since then, there is no doubt that the opposition will receive over 51," he added.
Bloc Forecasts
Ramon outlined his calculations: "The Arab parties, with the small union and the joining of Saglovich, will hold between 14-15 seats. Neither of the major blocs will reach 61. A dramatic change has occurred: all parties have announced they will not allow Netanyahu to head a transitional government. Consequently, Eisenkot will form a minority government with the support or abstention of the Arab parties, even without formal negotiations."
Influencing Factors
Ramon identified two potential events that could shift the current polling landscape:
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Political: If the regime in Iran falls, it would significantly strengthen Netanyahu.
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Internal: Both Lieberman and Bennett are avoiding commitments regarding who would be the designated Prime Minister if their bloc wins.
"They will ask for a rotation or take even more serious steps. The Arab parties say that to prevent Netanyahu from heading a transitional government, they will support the government from the outside. If a government is presented to the Knesset, Lieberman will have to decide," Ramon explained.
In conclusion, he argued that Shas will not drop to single-digit seats: "Shas voters are Haredi and traditional Mizrahi, and despite disappointment regarding the draft issue, they will likely hold around 10 seats. The Haredi parties will remain around their usual size of 18 seats, leaving Netanyahu's bloc with 54-55 seats."
