Picked with tweezers, the rest will be silenced: The new 'patrol' of the Likud | Mati Tuchfeld

Unlike previous times, when Benjamin Netanyahu fought for reserved spots and in the end used them mainly for list corrections after the primaries or for political concoctions for unions and breakups in the right-wing bloc, this time the Prime Minister is taking the composition of the Knesset list very seriously.

If we exclude two or three reserved spots that Netanyahu will use to make corrections to the list or for political unions on the right, he still has a significant number of slots at his disposal where he can place reinforcement players from various fields, perhaps even surprising ones. In days when other candidates have already run out of stars, Netanyahu is just getting started.

Just as no one expected the first shark, so the Prime Minister will try to surprise with the next ornamental fish that he will present in the Likud aquarium. The direction this time: well-known people, with a name in their field, and with one or two experiences of appearing in the media. Together with very few representatives, whom Netanyahu will choose with tweezers, who will be allowed to speak to the media during the campaign, the new sharks will be the presenters of the renewed ruling party. That is how it is in Netanyahu's mind. The big question is, of course, whether he will succeed.

The public moves right, the bloc weakens

The picture foreseen in the headquarters of all parties is identical: while the public after the war has moved to the right, the coalition bloc, representing the right-wing parties, is weakening. This dissonance keeps Benjamin Netanyahu and the other heads of right-wing parties awake at night, and serves as fertile ground for hope for everyone else. This picture presents a clear reality according to which there are between 15 and 25 mandates of right-wing people, of all kinds, who at this stage are not willing to vote for one of the three right-wing parties in the coalition: Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit.

The shift to the right of the public in Israel following the massacre and war events is reflected in three main planes: tradition and Judaism; a rigid security perception and zero tolerance for the Arab enemy; sympathy for settlement in Judea and Samaria and the rejection of handing over territories for agreements. If there were 68 mandates in the current Knesset that believed in these values even before October 7, then today, according to the estimate, there should have been over 70, perhaps even 75 mandates that moved to this side. In the polls, as mentioned, the trend is the opposite. In the most favorable poll, by Momo Filber on Channel 14, these parties receive 62 mandates.

The prevailing estimate is that if the situation remains static, and only the existing parties remain until the finish line, these votes will be divided. It is still unclear how. Some will return to the original parties in the right-wing bloc. Others will migrate to the costume parties on the other side. This reality leads to the fact that as of today, there is almost no value to the polls published in the media. Too many people with too many hesitations. This does not give a stable picture, but rather chaos and disinformation.

In recent weeks, all parties, from all camps, have sent their poll consultants to analyze the gap. Who are those right-wingers, old and new, who refuse, as of now, to express support for the current government parties? What deters them, and how can they be drawn into their fold? The findings are not very surprising but unequivocal: the composition of the Likud list and the alliance with the Haredim. Also on the margins: anger at the government that the October 7 disaster occurred on its watch, non-treatment of the cost of living, disappointment with the failure of the judicial reform, and more.

Divide and conquer

Netanyahu understands that besides the issue of conscription and the connection with the Haredim, the composition of the Likud list also has enormous significance. Therefore, he demanded and received eight reserved spots. A huge and unprecedented number that will give him room for maneuver for corrections if necessary. Therefore, upon his return from the USA, he began to get involved with all his might in the procedural matters, the petitions, and the districts clause that was approved by a narrow majority, and he will not let go until he achieves everything he wants. Meanwhile, the two clauses he wanted – he received: reserved spots and the primaries bylaws. But not only them.

During the contacts to bring those clauses to the approval of the party conference, he managed to dismantle what could have been the strongest deal in the Likud in the upcoming internal elections – David Bitan and Haim Katz. From joint negotiations with both, the Prime Minister chose to work only with Katz and leave Bitan out of the picture. Bitan was furious and raged, but in the end, he lost. On the districts clause, indeed only by five votes, but on the two clauses that were really important to him, Netanyahu defeated him by a huge majority.

The vote and the appeal on the clause of MKs running in districts escalated the rivalry within the Likud, and Bitan was forced to mark not only Netanyahu as a rival, but also Katz. The divide and conquer succeeded beyond expectations. Among all these, Netanyahu managed to recruit all the senior party members to support his proposals at the conference. Even Tali Gottlieb supported his two important proposals and came out against the districts proposal that was important to Haim Katz in general.

The Minister of Defense, the Speaker of the Knesset, Yariv Levin, and the other senior ministers released support videos for the Prime Minister's proposals, which made it clear to all members that in the Likud there is one owner. By the way, at least for Israel Katz, it already paid off. Some of Netanyahu's associates pressured him to attack the Minister of Defense for what was perceived as the dismissal of General Blout on live broadcast. In the past, Netanyahu would not have missed an opportunity to flex his muscles against Katz, especially when it comes to defending an IDF general, who excellently implements the government's policy regarding settlement in Judea and Samaria, but this time Netanyahu refused.

After many years in which the winning axis in the Likud was in the pockets of the Katzes, Haim and Israel, in the last elections the paths of the two parted, which led, among other things, to the decline of Israel, who was pushed out of the top ten. Recent events have brought the two closer, and as it seems, in the upcoming primaries they will work to restore the crown to its former glory.

The alliance with Netanyahu, including the decision to send the party's legal advisor Ilan Bombach to fight for the districts clause in the District Court, strengthened the status of Haim Katz, while the high position serves well politically the status of Israel. Their close joining will lead to the re-establishment of the strong axis in the Likud, at least until the next confrontation with Netanyahu, which may bring, again, the divide and conquer method to the forefront.