"On this the elections will be decided": The mandate picture of those who bear the burden - and the figure that will worry Netanyahu
A Ynet and "Yedioth Ahronoth" poll reveals: about 70% of reservists say they will decide their vote based on the conscription issue, and the Likud is currently losing about two-thirds of its supporters in the serving sector. At the same time, in an open and pointed conversation, ten representatives of reserve organizations from the right and left agreed on almost everything - and sent a clear message to the decision-makers.
The most sought-after votes in the upcoming elections will, in all likelihood, be those of the reservists. Although they come from all walks of life and hold opposing political views, since the October 7 massacre, the priorities of many have changed. This is a group of more than 300,000 people, most of them with careers and families, who, while they were called to the flag and reported for hundreds of days of reserve duty, saw at the same time how tens of thousands of young ultra-Orthodox were evading service. This experience turned the issue of equality in bearing the burden from a political slogan into an existential and uncompromising demand.
In the Ynet and "Yedioth Ahronoth" poll, conducted by the Dialogue Institute among a representative national sample of 509 reservists, about 70% of respondents answered that the government's conduct on the issue of ultra-Orthodox conscription influences their voting decision to a large or very large extent. Only about 14% indicated that the issue affects them to a small extent or not at all.
According to the findings, the party that receives the highest support rate in the sample is Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!", with about 19% of respondents. The Likud receives about 13% of the votes, Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" about 10%, Yisrael Beiteinu about 8%, and Otzma Yehudit about 7%. The ultra-Orthodox parties, among the reservists, do not pass the electoral threshold.
According to the poll, about 63% of reservists support a sweeping conscription of ultra-Orthodox for military or national service, about 28% for a framework that includes a limited exemption, and only about 6% support the continuation of the existing situation. Another figure that should worry the Likud: only 34% of reservists who voted for the party in 2022 said they would vote for it again for sure, while about a quarter announced that they would move to the opposition parties.
Open conversation
To understand the storm happening under the surface, we gathered ten representatives of reserve organizations for an open conversation. Despite the great differences, the consensus on most questions was almost absolute. All ten agreed that the duty of service must extend to the entire public in Israel, and that the next government should promote personal and economic sanctions against evaders, alongside a significant package of benefits for servicemen.
"The biggest lie that has been told in the last three years is that we will spoil the servicemen. It's like saying there is a money tree," stated Reserve Staff Sergeant Oz, representative of Dor BaMiluim. "The compass of Israeli society must be value-based: whoever serves - leads and receives, and whoever does not serve - cannot lead politically and also receive."
