In Washington they wait and hope: but in Iran they have already moved on
Dr. Raz Zimmt expressed a pessimistic forecast regarding the situation with Iran during an interview on 103FM. Among other things, he claimed that the Revolutionary Guards will not agree to compromise within the framework of the negotiations.
Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran program at the INSS Institute, was interviewed this morning (Sunday) on 103FM and expressed his opinion regarding the current situation with Iran.
"About a week ago I already said that I do not see a chance that the Iranians will give up their control over the Strait of Hormuz," he noted.
He added on the subject: "The Iranians view the Strait of Hormuz as their most significant strategic achievement. The meaning of American recognition of the Iranians' control over the strait in one form or another is not only that the Iranians determine the arrangements, but that they will also be allowed at a certain stage to collect something. We have been saying for quite a few months that this 'something' can be defined in quite a few ways - service fees, environmental fees, or all sorts of other such ideas. But it is completely clear that the Americans will likely be willing to recognize a change in the status quo in the strait."
He expressed his disagreement regarding the claim that the Iranians will agree to compromise:
"There is no doubt that the Iranians are reading, just like everyone else, the reports published both here and in the US about the shortage of interceptors and the lack of desire of the American military echelon to return to war, and it is clear that they will exploit this. In recent weeks, the Iranians have been conducting negotiations not with the Americans, but with the Omanis, regarding arrangements that will allow the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This, of course, does not mean that the Iranians are backing down from all the demands that stood at the basis of the memorandum of understanding."
The memorandum of understanding stipulated that in parallel to the opening of the strait by the Iranians, the Americans themselves would do things such as: releasing some of the frozen Iranian assets, easing sanctions on oil exports, and removing the naval blockade. The Iranians demanded this from the start; in their view, the Americans violated the memorandum of understanding, and now they are demanding additional concessions.
