Timeline of Overlooked Intelligence Warnings Before October 7 Unveiled
Investigative reports reveal Israel received multiple intelligence warnings from regional partners and Hamas leaders in September 2023, which were systematically misinterpreted before October 7.
Israel received multiple intelligence warnings regarding a potential major escalation by Hamas throughout September 2023, weeks before the October 7 massacre, but systematically misinterpreted them, according to investigative reports and security disclosures.
The timeline of overlooked warnings began on September 14, when former Palestinian minister Sufian Abu Zaida transmitted a message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to Israel's security establishment. The Shin Bet learned that Sinwar warned of an impending earthquake regarding prisoners and missing persons. Israel's security apparatus immediately convened an urgent security assessment, concluding that Hamas intended to hijack the captive case of Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli researcher then held in Iraq by a pro-Iranian proxy group. Israeli intelligence had recently detected a senior Iranian official offering Hamas the opportunity to take charge of negotiations for Tsurkov's release, making Sinwar's warning fit the new intelligence picture perfectly.
Days after Sinwar's message, the United Arab Emirates intelligence service warned Israeli counterparts that Hamas might launch violent actions before the end of September. According to three senior sources with direct knowledge, Israeli officials contacted Emirati security figures at the end of September, stating that nothing had happened and claiming their source was lying. Just days later, the October 7 surprise attack began.
Shortly thereafter, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed delivered an urgent warning directly to Benjamin Netanyahu. According to reports by journalists Uri Eldar and Ruth Yuval in Haaretz, Bin Zayed ensured during the call that the Emirati intelligence warning had been received and passed directly to Netanyahu, who reportedly replied that he was aware of the information and that the matter was being handled. A senior defense official noted that if a direct message from Mohammed bin Zayed had been shared with the security chiefs, it might have counterbalanced the prevailing self-soothing assumptions within the establishment.
On September 26, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel secretly visited Israel, warning officials that Hamas was preparing a significant offensive and emphasizing that the window to prevent escalation was closing. The visit lasted merely 67 minutes, coinciding with Netanyahu's speech at a ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.
Additional warnings followed in early October. According to reports confirmed by the Atlantic magazine and journalist Behi Ashkenazi, Egypt conveyed another alert on October 5 regarding a potential outbreak in the Gaza Strip. Jordanian officials similarly passed parallel messages.
Prime Minister's Office responded by vehemently denying the reports. Regarding the UAE call, the PMO stated that no warnings from the Emirates were conveyed to the Prime Minister before October 7, and any relevant information was handled through standard intelligence channels. Regarding the Atlantic report, the PMO dismissed it as a recycled falsehood intended to mislead the public, noting that Egypt officially denied warning Israel on October 11, 2023, and that Netanyahu had neither met nor spoken with Abbas Kamel in the months preceding October 7.
