Towards the opening of trading: The reason indices will be under pressure today

The trading day opens under pressure expected from dual-listed stocks, at the start of one of the busiest weeks of the year — with the Fed's interest rate decision and a wave of reports from the world's largest companies.

Dual-listed stocks return this morning with a sharp negative impact of about 1.9% on the index, which will significantly weigh on the opening. The most notable laggard will be Tower, which is expected to fall about 10% following a similar decline on Friday on Wall Street, against the backdrop of negative sentiment in the chip sector. Nova is expected to fall about 6% and Camtek to plunge about 7.5%. Gilat and Ormat are also expected to stand out negatively, with declines of about 10% and 6% respectively.

This is a reminder that chips are a double-edged sword for the local stock exchange: when the sector is weak globally, it weighs on Tel Aviv through dual-listed stocks. Since Tower alone has a significant weight in the indices, its expected plunge will be well felt at the opening.

Wall Street concluded a negative week, led by a 2% fall in the Nasdaq. The negative peak was on Thursday, when the 'Magnificent Seven' wiped out almost 800 billion dollars — their worst day since April 2025. The catalyst: concerns about ballooning AI expenses, after Google and Tesla reported huge capital investments that hurt cash flow.

An especially worrying sign: Intel plunged about 8% on Friday despite excellent reports that beat all forecasts. When even a dream report cannot lift a stock, it teaches that sentiment in the sector is fragile. Oil prices fell on Friday (Brent below 96 dollars), but still recorded a weekly increase of about 11% after touching 100 dollars.

An Israeli story worth knowing: LivePerson, a pioneer in the world of chats and messaging for customer service, is being sold — and under conditions that illustrate how much its value has fallen. The company, founded in 1995 and one of the first in the world to bring live chat to websites, is being sold in a deal that reflects a value much lower than its peak.

Why is this a sad exit? Because LivePerson was once a dizzying success story. At its peak, during the corona period, the company was traded at a value of over 4 billion dollars, when the world moved to digital communication and the demand for its chat solutions soared.

But since then everything has changed: the generative AI revolution, which was supposed to be the company's golden opportunity, became its biggest threat. AI-based chatbot solutions — like those of OpenAI and Google — threatened to make exactly what LivePerson sold redundant, and the company struggled to make the transition. The stock lost almost all its value, and in the end is being sold for a fraction of its peak value.

The broad lesson: sometimes the technology that is supposed to be a company's big opportunity becomes the threat that kills it. LivePerson, like Kodak in the digital age or Blockbuster in the streaming age, is an example of a company that led a category — and then the category changed right under its nose. For investors, this is a reminder that even a market leader can become less relevant with surprising speed when a new technological wave arrives.

The week reaches the peak of the reporting season. On Wall Street: Microsoft, Meta and Apple — three of the 'Magnificent Seven' — will report and dictate the direction of technology as a whole. After Google and Tesla disappointed due to expenses, the bar is clear: investors want to see a return on AI investments, not just growth. Several Israeli companies on Wall Street will also report: Lemonade, Check Point, Fiverr and Teva will also report.

Another central event: the Fed's interest rate decision. No change is expected — the market is pricing in a probability of about 65% that the rate will remain as is against about 35% for a hike — but the phrasing of Chairman Warsh will be examined carefully in light of expensive oil and high bond yields.

The opening today is expected to be red due to dual-listed stocks, led by Tower. For the Israeli saver, the week is critical: the giants' reports will determine if the technology correction continues, the Fed's decision will affect the dollar and bonds, and the escalation with Iran continues to fuel oil and defense stocks.

It is interesting to note the ongoing split — while global technology is under pressure, Israeli defense stocks are flourishing. The story of LivePerson adds another layer: it reminds that even within the world of technology, not all companies enjoy the same wave — some are actually killed by it, and it is interesting to see who will be the next ones that will not be able to adapt themselves to the new world.