In their blindness, the heads of the Revolutionary Guards are leading Tehran to ruin
Driven by a sense of power, the new leadership in Iran is preventing a diplomatic agreement that would strengthen it. Every day, the regime's leaders add enemies and consolidate a regional coalition against them. Still, one must hope that Israel will define clear goals in the event of another round of fighting.
Given that the US administration is unlikely to turn to another jaw-dropping U-turn, the Middle East is on the verge of another round of fighting. Every night, the US military deepens its strikes across Iran, damaging military infrastructure. Every day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) expands the scope of escalation against Arab countries and pounces on every American vulnerability.
Just before the warnings are heard in Israel as well, one must hope that this time specific and focused goals have been set. For example, the destruction or removal of the high-level uranium stockpile and further damage to nuclear infrastructure. Meanwhile, from Donald Trump's statements, a rather problematic and vague goal emerges: to force the current regime in Tehran to submit to American dictates. However, these conditions are not particularly clear and have long since ceased to concern the immediate threats to Israel and the region.
In the memorandum of understanding signed between Tehran and Washington, there was no explicit reference to terrorist proxies or ballistic missiles. The main part of the document concerned the freedom of international navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which affects what really interests the White House: fuel prices. The practical discussion on nuclear infrastructure was also postponed to an unclear date.
An atmosphere of "bluff"
In simple terms: it is Washington, not Tehran, that has signaled weakness and retreated from its initial positions. After all, the previous central goal of creating the conditions for the overthrow of the regime in Tehran has been completely abandoned, if Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu ever truly intended it. In this context, initiatives like the crowning of Ahmadinejad hint at an atmosphere of bluff, lack of seriousness, and lack of judgment.
Ironically, the main factor preventing a diplomatic agreement that would free Tehran from sanctions, inject billions of dollars into it, and turn it into a regional power, is its own new leadership. Ahmad Vahidi, Mohsen Rezaee, and their associates — the retired generals of the IRGC who have taken the reins of power and are hiding behind the terrifyingly long letters of Mojtaba Khamenei — are thwarting every diplomatic initiative by Pakistan or the Gulf states. In their blindness, they are convinced that the US administration will completely abandon its influence in the Middle East and withdraw all its military assets.
Furthermore, every day the leadership of the IRGC adds more and more enemies to its guest list: from Jordan to the UK. The Iranian terrorist organization's statements regarding attacks against "American occupation forces" do not convince anyone in the Gulf monarchies. On the contrary, in the last week, a reconciliation has emerged between Saudi Arabia and the UAE after months of tension due to disputes in the Yemeni arena. In the Gulf, they are talking about a new regional coalition and the loss of the Iranian regime's leverage.
Destruction and ruin
More importantly, the leaders of the IRGC ignore the fact that even if the round of fighting does not topple the regime and achieve the goals of Israel and the US, it will certainly sow further destruction and ruin, and perhaps cut off their heads. The Shiite ideal of total sacrifice will be useless for those who survive.
And yet, the fear is that at the end of the round, the sides will return to the starting point: indirect negotiations on a diplomatic agreement that will strengthen Tehran. As of now, it does not appear that the US intends to occupy the Iranian regime in the format of Iraq and establish an alternative, pro-Western government there. Donald Trump is signaling that he prefers a deal, as bad as it may be.
In any case, it is better for Israel to learn lessons from the previous operation and define clear goals (as mentioned, the destruction or removal of the uranium stockpile and further damage to nuclear infrastructure). It is always good to weaken the Iranian regime, but its overthrow, it seems, does not depend on us.
