Unusual silence in the Gulf and the fear of a ground raid: A situation report from Iran
For the first time in two weeks, an unusual silence was recorded on the ground tonight, and no American attacks were carried out in Iran. Iranian television broadcast a propaganda report from the shores of the Strait of Hormuz, but behind the belligerent messages, Tehran is deeply concerned about an American commando raid on the underground nuclear facility at Mount Makush. Here are the latest updates and the decisive moments in Washington.
The campaign against Iran is reaching a critical crossroads: alongside a tense silence on the ground, the regime's propaganda machine in Tehran is trying to project control from the shores of the Strait of Hormuz. In the last day, there has been a sudden halt in American attacks, while the Iranian security establishment is preparing for a scenario that is threatening from their perspective — a ground commando raid on nuclear facilities hidden deep underground.
Parallel to the tense silence on the ground, Tehran continues to send stern threats toward Washington. The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr, declared that attacks against American targets will continue until the "enemy's total surrender." In his remarks, he described the attacks as "whip lashes of the Iranian people's wrath" and added that every column of smoke in the region testifies to a direct hit on a military, security, or financial center of the USA.
Unusual silence and the propaganda display at sea
After two weeks of continuous waves of intense and extensive attacks, the US military did not carry out strikes on Iranian territory last night. The motive behind this halt is unclear at this stage, and no official statement has been issued from Washington. Parallel to this, complete silence is also being maintained by Tehran, and no missile launches toward Gulf states have been identified since last night. It is unclear whether this is a temporary lull for regrouping or perhaps a diplomatic signal against the backdrop of the frantic discussions in Washington.
While the silence is maintained on the ground, Iran's state television broadcast a special field report from the shores of Jask County and the port city of Bandar-e Jask, adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz — the strategic shipping route connecting the Sea of Oman to the strait's lanes. The Iranian reporter was careful to emphasize the military and civilian presence in the area:
"The brave military personnel of the Islamic Republic are securing and protecting these waters. We saw here the loyalists of Iran and the residents of the province patrolling and voluntarily protecting these shores. We thought there was no better place than this to show you the effort and resilience of the people of this land."
During the report, the reporter also presented the daily routine of the local residents. Most fishermen noted that while there might be some concern about the situation, what gives them the confidence to continue their lives is the faith and trust they have in the armed forces of their country, which "will not give even one inch of the country's land to the enemy." As part of the show of force, the reporter noted that warning shots were fired in the last 24 hours at four ships that tried to pass in the southern area of the strait on an illegal and unsecured route, forcing them to change course.
The Iranian fear: A commando raid on Mount Makush
However, behind the displays of power and the belligerent statements on the shores, Tehran is primarily concerned about a threat of a completely different kind. According to a report in The New York Times, American officials note that the facilities in the Mount Makush area are carved very deep inside the rock — beyond the penetration range of the most powerful and heavy conventional bombs in the US military's possession. Based on the heavy damage caused to the uranium enrichment facility in Fordow in previous attacks, the Iranians understood how deep American bombs are capable of penetrating. Consequently, they are convinced that the deeper underground halls in Mount Makush are completely protected from a conventional aerial attack.
Nevertheless, a serious fear is developing in the Iranian security establishment regarding a different type of action: in Iran, they fear that the USA might carry out a ground commando raid on the complex, in which special forces would enter and destroy the equipment and facilities from within. According to American intelligence, the Iranians are not taking any chances and have already significantly reinforced ground forces in the Mount Makush area to prepare for such a scenario.
Decisive moments in Washington
The New York Times reports that US intelligence agencies assess that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is interested in promoting the acquisition of nuclear weapons much more aggressively than his father, Ali Khamenei. Although Khamenei the son has never publicly called for the development of nuclear weapons, the assessment in the West is that he and the radical leadership that has risen around him, after the USA and Israel eliminated many of Iran's previous leaders, aspire to develop advanced nuclear weapons.
However, American officials emphasize that all intelligence on Mojtaba was collected even before the outbreak of the war and before he actually took office. According to those same officials, although Tehran has not yet actually resumed the nuclear program, Iran has taken active steps to preserve its nuclear assets after the American attacks on its central facilities last year, as well as during the lulls in fighting in the current war — and among other things, transferred sensitive equipment to the protected complex at Mount Makush. While such a move might be a first step toward restoring enrichment capability in the future, American officials assess that at this stage, Iran's main goal is simply to preserve the equipment and keep it out of range of American bombings.
Against the backdrop of all these developments, President Donald Trump convened a dramatic meeting yesterday with his senior advisors and members of the US cabinet to decide whether to escalate the attacks against Iran. At this stage, it is unclear what decision was reached in the meeting, but the silence recorded last night may be the silence before the storm.
