A fight for every realistic seat: the «bloodbath» threatening Likud

While the prime minister was preparing for the unknown that is expected to be waiting for him in the Sagal room, Knesset member Bitan arranged for him an almost political defeat from within, through a vote at the center of the party.

With one hand, Benjamin Netanyahu wrote another chapter in the continuation of the war with Iran, and with the other he was required to juggle political deals. And this is not the end. In Likud, they are organizing for a bloodbath among party members until the decision in the primaries, with very few realistic seats, after eight shiryons (reserved spots), three women, and four districts. Perhaps half of the Knesset members will have to find new work. This is the reason for the calming talks that people from Netanyahu’s office have been holding throughout the last week with everyone who will need a soft landing in citizenship.

Netanyahu will have to find time, between the troubles at home in Likud and the campaign in Iran, also to organize the votes in the right-wing bloc, which in the meantime is characterized by dispersion in the style of the 1992 elections: a lot of players on the field and fewer than ten available mandates.

The former ambassador from Likud is preparing a campaign that will hunt precisely those votes, together with former Knesset member Yuli Edelstein, Aliza Bloch, and new figures on the political field who are identified absolutely with the right. The delay before the announcement, in my understanding, is the result of a procedure and not of substance. The question of when is shared by another intriguing player who is preparing for the announcement—Ofir Winter, who refuses behind the scenes to join existing and established parties. Together with many of his former commanders, they are building infrastructure for a new party, and the timing is still shrouded in fog.

The results of the primaries in Religious Zionism this week strengthened everything that is currently missing in the existing right-wing parties and paved the way for Winter, and perhaps also for Ardan, who makes a point of reminding that he is from the sector from the beginning of his path. Despite the effective jabs in the general media, the results of the primaries were a diploma of completion for the party’s outstanding parliamentarians and ministers.

Orit Strock, who directs security discussions only as an observer in the cabinet, and Simcha Rothman, as chair of the Constitution Committee, received renewed trust from the members. The man behind the scenes of Smotrich and CEO of the Yesha Council, Omer Rahamim, managed to place himself at the top alongside the sitting Knesset members within just a few days. It turns out he was sent on a mission by the chairman in order to distance from the opening seven figures who ran in the primaries.

But for Smotrich, this will not be enough to produce a list that will certainly bring more than five mandates. A large part of Religious Zionism in Givat Shmuel or in the periphery does not find in it an answer to his hopes. Although he would have preferred, like every party leader, another Knesset member in his image, he will specifically need a figure who publicly shares his disagreement on matters of conscription, religion and state, and the attitude toward Haredim. Such is Ofir Sofer. But there’s the catch: Sofer, who was the leg of Religious Zionism, felt exhaustion after two years of political battles. But also Smotrich, before he begins courting Alon Davidi or another figure in Religious Zionism, will have to learn to live in peace with the mosaic he asked to represent by turning Religious Zionism into a party brand.

When Netanyahu frees himself to sort out the mess in the bloc, he will have to give up the previous convenience marriages between Smotrich and Ben Gvir. According to internal polls of these parties, the connection between them is driving away two to three mandates: settlers who recoil from Ben Gvir, and periphery and secular voters who do not want to bring another Knesset member of Smotrich into the list.

In addition, it is heard behind the scenes that Ben Gvir is not interested in another case of Almog Cohen, and he even feels cheated by the previous list arrangement with Smotrich. From his perspective, he brings the mandates, so he arranges the list. He also is not interested in additional free souls in the political system, but in soldiers who will carry out his policy.

In the gap between the democratic parties, whose voters look for representatives based on ideology, and the parties of the one man, whose voters want only Yisankot or Ben Gvir, those who want to be with democracy and feel without it are entering now. At their head stands one: Benjamin Netanyahu, who will try to arrange his party and then the bloc, in order to stop competing with Yisankot for the title of the largest party and return to the inter-bloc race, which is much more convenient for him. The road to submitting the lists in September has never looked longer.