Channel 14 polls: Ahead of competitors in identifying political trends

In political polling, the most critical question is often not just the accuracy of a result at a given moment, but the ability to identify a trend shift first. An analysis of Channel 14 data over the last two years reveals four instances where we were the first to record significant changes on the political map, while competing channels reflected a different picture.

The Likud surge after the September events

In the summer of 2024, Likud reached a low of 24 mandates in Channel 14 polls. However, after the sequence of dramatic security events in September — the pager operation, the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, and the attack in Iran — pollster Shlomo Filber identified a sharp change in the trend.

In our poll, Likud jumped to 33 mandates, and the right-wing bloc returned to a majority of 62 mandates. At the same time, the picture presented in the polls of Channel 12 and Channel 11 was different: Likud was still hovering around 22–23 mandates, and the coalition stood at only about 51. Only in the months that followed did the polls on other channels begin to show a significant strengthening of Likud and a narrowing of the gap.

We identified Gantz's collapse early

Another prominent case is Benny Gantz and the National Unity party. In May 2024, while Channel 12 was still presenting Gantz as the big winner of the elections with 29 mandates, we recorded a completely different picture. The Channel 14 poll gave National Unity only 19 mandates — a figure that already signaled the beginning of a downward trend at that time.

In the months that followed, the trend deepened. In March 2025, our poll pointed to a collapse of National Unity to 7 mandates, while in competing polls, the party continued to receive 15–16 mandates — almost twice as much.

Yair Golan's rise

We also identified Yair Golan's strengthening on the left at an early stage. Already in May 2024, when the political system was still trying to understand the impact of changes in the left-wing bloc, the Channel 14 poll gave Golan 8 mandates. By early 2025, our polls pointed to a potential of 17 mandates for the Democrats. At that time, polls on competing channels presented significantly lower figures, and only later did their numbers begin to climb and approach the trend we had identified earlier.

Eisenkot overtakes Bennett — two months before competitors

The fourth case study occurred in the struggle for leadership of the anti-Netanyahu bloc. Naftali Bennett was long presented in polls as the main political threat to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, in April 2026, our poll indicated a change: Gadi Eisenkot overtook Bennett, emerging as the leading political force in the camp.

Competing polls lagged behind: on Channel 12, for example, they continued to present Bennett with 20 mandates compared to only 14 for Eisenkot. Only in June 2026, about two months after the trend had appeared with us, was the headline published there that Eisenkot had equaled Bennett.

These four cases are not about a point gap of a single mandate. In each instance, it is a significant trend change: the strengthening of Likud, the weakening of Gantz, the rise of Yair Golan, and the strengthening of Eisenkot at the expense of Bennett. In all four cases, the trend appeared in Channel 14 polls long before it was reflected in the polls of competing channels.