If these data remain, it is a preparation for a turnaround | Amit Segal
While Eisenkot and Golan supporters are in a frenzy, the Right is showing peak complacency, even in the national-religious and ultra-Orthodox sectors. Benjamin Netanyahu and his partners have 12 weeks to wake up the field, or they will witness a change happening before their eyes.
Voter turnout remains the biggest unknown. The best way to predict it is to measure enthusiasm: comparing those who are counting the days until the election with those who can barely bring themselves to understand who is running with whom and what the difference actually is.
A word of caution: everything can change before election day. That is exactly what campaigns are for. A second word of caution: there are precedents for the scenario presented here, which flipped in the very last hours of election day. A third note: there are also precedents where it did not flip.
If the elections were held today, enthusiasm in the center-left bloc would be sky-high. 64% of opposition supporters believe these are influential elections that could significantly affect the future of the country, and that it is vital to participate. In the coalition, that figure is only 49%. This represents an enthusiasm gap of 15%, a dramatic figure by any measure. Eisenkot's voters are 20% more enthusiastic than Netanyahu's voters (70% versus 50%).
To one's amazement, there are two populations where not only is there no sense of emergency, but on the contrary, there is a relatively high reluctance to participate. 13% of national-religious voters and 8% of ultra-Orthodox voters are already announcing they will not come, despite these sectors historically having the highest turnout rates. I personally remember from my childhood that they once called a voter in Ofra at six in the evening from the polling station, telling him to come already because he was the last one who had not yet arrived.
If these data remain until election day, this is a preparation for a turnaround. Benjamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, Aryeh Deri, and Itamar Ben Gvir are busy solely with creating fear that will awaken the survival instinct, which in turn will drive voters to the polls. They have 12 weeks to wake up those who currently just want to keep sleeping. Eisenkot and Golan, on the other hand, can save the money on a transportation system; everyone will arrive on their own, at their own expense.
