Only a 2% chance: The government move that effectively ended the 'Discounted Apartment' program

In the last 24 hours, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with the Ministers of Finance and Construction, issued a dramatic announcement: a new window of opportunity for reservists, which is intended to significantly expand the housing supply. Let there be no misunderstanding: everyone who has served in the reserves since the beginning of the war deserves every assistance from the state. However, the big question remains: what happens to the public that does not serve in the army?

The "From Reserves to Keys" initiative suffers from a fundamental problem: it offers a re-management of the shortage rather than providing a real solution to the housing crisis. The figures thrown into the air sound dramatic: 20,000 housing solutions, increasing the priority to 75% in "Discounted Apartment" lotteries, and discounts of over half a million shekels. But does this increase the housing supply? The answer is no.

In practice, the state is not creating something out of nothing. Increasing the winning percentages for reservists is a zero-sum game. The pie has not grown; the state is simply allocating more to reserve soldiers at the expense of the housing-deprived public that does not serve. Allocating a larger share to one group, even if justified, pushes the rest of the public aside, including young couples, who will very soon stop applying for the lottery.

Let's look at the numbers: in the last lottery, 25,354 reservists registered, of whom 4,734 won. If 75% of the winners are reservists, it means that approximately 2,000 apartments will be distributed to approximately 100,000 people in need of housing—a success rate of only 2%.

Has the "Discounted Apartment" program lost its effectiveness for those who are not reservists? The answer is clear: it does not solve the crisis or increase the housing supply; it simply changes the identity of the winners. Let us recall that in the last few days, another 100,000 people have entered the market, and it is far from certain that it will be simple to find a "Discounted Apartment" for everyone in the current format.

Regarding the "20,000 housing solutions for reservists over two years," the Ministry of Construction and Housing is planning 3 more lotteries. It appears that these will be identical in terms of overall scope. The only new element is 4,000 plots for detached houses, though it remains to be seen whether reservists will actually want to live in Beit She'an or Tiberias given the price points.

The current benefits are not bad; they solve the housing problem for reservists, whose chance of winning a "Discounted Apartment" worth hundreds of thousands of shekels has increased significantly. Thousands have already won and left the race, which will push the odds for the remaining applicants into the double digits. On the other hand, the state has no other solution and no alternative plan for the hundreds of thousands who do not meet the conditions and are still in need of an apartment.