Report: The major move that may bring Putin a victory
Estimates are growing that Vladimir Putin is expected to order a massive mobilization. Russia has conducted large-scale readiness exercises ahead of a potential widespread draft, which would be highly unpopular. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing a severe political crisis.
Russia has begun readiness exercises for a mass mobilization of new soldiers. This move could prove problematic for Vladimir Putin, as tens of thousands of citizens are already fleeing the country. Simultaneously, there are concerns that Russia may carry out a military grab in Eastern Europe. Domestically, Ukraine is facing a political crisis as the former Defense Minister, dismissed by Volodymyr Zelensky, is challenging him politically by calling for immediate elections—a demand the president has unequivocally rejected.
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, based on Western intelligence sources, Russian officers conducted exercises in the Kaliningrad enclave last month to test the authorities' readiness to mobilize local residents. The preparations included logistics such as housing, feeding, and arming recruits. These exercises are part of a series taking place across Russia, though analysts believe a final decision on a full-scale mobilization will not be made until after the Russian parliamentary elections in late September.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimates that Russia is likely to mobilize about 300,000 additional soldiers later this year. He believes this will occur after the elections, coinciding with Moscow's efforts to complete the occupation of the Donbas region. "We are sure that after the elections they will carry out a mobilization. We believe that it will not happen in the big cities," Zelensky stated.
Russian preparations are driven by the difficulty in recruiting enough soldiers to replace those killed or wounded. Zelensky claimed that Russia has lost 267,000 soldiers since the beginning of the year, including 155,000 dead. Despite these losses, Moscow continues to hold significant territory. The last mobilization in September 2022 led to chaos and a mass exodus of men, and current rumors of a new wave are already causing anxiety, with reports of increased traffic at border crossings like Verkhny Lars.
Geopolitical Tensions
Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave situated between Poland and Lithuania, has become a focal point for Western intelligence. There are concerns that in the event of an escalation, Russia might attempt to seize control of the Suwalki Corridor. Moscow has previously used large-scale military exercises in the region as a deterrent against NATO, while alliance members recently conducted joint air exercises nearby.
Political Turmoil in Ukraine
Alongside military developments, Zelensky is dealing with internal political strife. Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, dismissed in July following a confrontation with top military leadership, has called for national elections. Zelensky has sharply rejected this, arguing that holding elections during wartime would be catastrophic.
"Elections now would be a tsunami for the country, one that would break Ukraine," the president said, adding that current conditions do not allow for safe or legitimate voting. Despite being offered other government roles, Fedorov continues to insist on his demand for elections, arguing that transparency is essential to the nation's cause. Zelensky maintains that he holds no personal animosity toward Fedorov but believes he is being pushed in the wrong direction.
