UAE Balances Ties: Iran Rapprochement and Continued Security with Israel
After facing numerous attacks, Abu Dhabi is working to gradually renew ties with Tehran, assessing that the Iranian regime will emerge from the war weakened but not defeated. Simultaneously, the UAE is deepening security cooperation with Israel and the US in preparation for potential future escalation.
The UAE has been working in recent months to defuse tensions with Iran and gradually renew diplomatic and economic ties, after taking the toughest line among Gulf states at the beginning of the war and suffering nearly 3,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks. This is according to a comprehensive report today (Tuesday) by the Financial Times.
The policy shift stems from the assessment in Abu Dhabi that the war will not lead to the overthrow of the Iranian regime or the defeat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and that the UAE must live alongside a weakened, but not defeated, Iran. Parallel to contacts with Tehran, it continues to strengthen security ties with Israel and the United States and prepare for the possibility of renewed escalation.
According to the report, after the US-Iran ceasefire in April, the UAE began to shift from a policy of confrontation to de-escalation. Flights between the countries were resumed, approximately 20,000 Iranian residents in the UAE were allowed to return, and maritime trade between Dubai and Iran began to recover.
In Abu Dhabi, officials explain that the move stems from a renewed recognition of the geographical limitations imposed on Gulf states. Sources told the newspaper that the leadership's main goal is to protect the country's status as a regional hub for trade, tourism, and finance, after the war demonstrated the local economy's vulnerability to prolonged security escalation.
According to sources familiar with the matter, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed entrusted the management of rapprochement efforts with Iran to three of his brothers: Vice President Mansour bin Zayed, Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed, and National Security Advisor Tahnoun bin Zayed, who is considered one of the pragmatic voices in the Abu Dhabi leadership.
The first signs of rapprochement appeared shortly after the ceasefire, when Mansour bin Zayed spoke with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a senior figure in Iran's civilian leadership and head of its negotiating team with Washington. Later, Abdullah bin Zayed spoke for the first time since the war with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an academic from the UAE, stated that Iran initiated the dialogue. He noted that Abu Dhabi concluded that even after months of fighting, the conflict is not expected to topple the regime in Tehran or defeat the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Diplomats and analysts suggest that Mohammed bin Zayed initially hoped the conflict would significantly weaken the Iranian regime and its military capabilities. However, Gulf leaders later realized that if US President Donald Trump ended the war with the Iranian regime still in power, they would face a wounded, yet more aggressive, opponent. This fear became a central consideration in the policy change.
Despite the contacts, the UAE emphasizes that its threat perception regarding Iran remains unchanged. A senior official told the newspaper that Abu Dhabi intends to continue strengthening its deterrence, maintaining a dialogue with Tehran, and utilizing its economic power. He stated that dealing with the crisis requires proactive action.
At the same time, security relations with Israel and the United States continue to tighten. According to the report, during the first weeks of the war, Israel transferred the "Iron Dome" air defense system and the "Iron Beam" laser system to the UAE. The Israeli embassy in Abu Dhabi has doubled in size, becoming one of the largest Israeli missions in the world.
Israel and the UAE are expanding cooperation in security, artificial intelligence, technology, logistics, and infrastructure, with Israeli defense companies expanding their permanent operations in the country.
However, sources in the UAE criticized the Israeli government, claiming that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contributed to the expansion of the regional conflict. According to them, his government's policy sometimes embarrasses Abu Dhabi. Despite this, the UAE leadership continues to view the Abraham Accords and normalization with Israel as a strategic asset that is not up for testing.
Parallel to this political move, the UAE is preparing for the possibility of another war. The government is examining the placement of critical infrastructure, including oil pipelines and data centers, expanding food storage, reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, and establishing alternative export routes through the coast of Fujairah.
DP World has announced the construction of two new cargo terminals in Fujairah, while the national oil company ADNOC is accelerating the construction of an oil pipeline that will double export capacity through the eastern coast.
Despite signs of recovery, the local economy has not yet returned to normal. According to the Financial Times, many Western airlines still do not fly to Dubai, hotel occupancy has been hit, businesses have been temporarily closed, and a decline in revenue and capital flight have been recorded. However, financial sources estimate that without renewed escalation, the UAE will be able to gradually complete its recovery over the coming year.
