Who makes decisions in Tehran?
At the head of Iran stands Mojtaba Khamenei, a "present-absent" leader who has not yet been seen in public and whose voice has not been heard. Was he mortally wounded in the attack that eliminated his father?
President Donald Trump's decision last April to halt the attack against Iran before its objectives were achieved gave the Ayatollah regime a victory they did not expect. The sense of achievement in Iran grew following the signing of the memorandum of understanding with the USA in June, which granted it the status of a regional power and also ensured the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars into its coffers.
It is no wonder that hubris took over the decision-makers in Iran. And as President Donald Trump and his Vice President Vance projected distress and eagerness to reach an agreement at any cost with the Iranians, the intoxication of power in Tehran grew, and with it the willingness to dare and challenge the USA.
This is, of course, one of the explanations for the puzzling Iranian conduct, which has brought disaster after disaster upon Iran in the past, and this time too has led it to pull the rope more and more until it snapped. For instead of leveraging its achievements through a diplomatic move in the face of an American administration that seemed panicked by the possibility of renewed fighting, the Iranians chose to provoke Donald Trump, harm his honor, and even humiliate him. And so they began firing at ships that tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, in violation of the memorandum of understanding they had signed.
However, this turned out to be a mistake. Donald Trump is not known as someone willing to forgive insults to his honor, and the Iranian audacity forced him to change direction and return to fighting. At first in a measured and cautious manner, but as the days go by, the pace and scope of the attacks increase. And there is even a possibility that Donald Trump will realize his threats and attack the Iranian economic infrastructure "for real," something he refrained from doing, which was a strategic mistake of his and Israel's in the war in March-April.
For Iran, sliding into renewed confrontation is a grave mistake, as its actual situation is worse than it is reflected in media reports or Iranian propaganda. True, the Iranian regime survived the failed attempt to collapse it and also maintained many of its military capabilities, but the Iranian economy is on the verge of collapse, if it has not already collapsed, as evidenced by the deterioration in the Iranian currency exchange rate, as well as reports of shortages and growing economic distress in Iran. And it was the economy that brought masses to the streets at the end of last year, and it is what could bring an end to the Ayatollah regime ruling the country.
All this raises the question: who actually makes decisions in Iran today? The pragmatic wing, which includes the smiling faces of Iran - Foreign Minister Araghchi, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, and alongside them President Pezeshkian - or perhaps precisely the radical wing headed by the people of the Revolutionary Guards.
In normal times, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini and his successor, Ali Khamenei, were the ones who decided in power struggles within the Iranian leadership, and they held the right to the final word, as their leadership enjoyed legitimacy and was accepted by all. But this is not the situation today. At the head of Iran stands Mojtaba Khamenei, a "present-absent" leader who has not yet been seen in public and whose voice has not been heard. There are even those who claim that he is not alive at all or was mortally wounded in the attack that eliminated his father, Ali Khamenei, and therefore he does not rule the country at all and everything is done as if on his behalf, but those who actually rule are the people of the Revolutionary Guards who were the ones who enthroned him in the first place.
The fear that a public appearance of the leader and the leadership, or even a gathering of them, will leak to the Americans and Israelis and lead to the elimination of this leadership, makes it difficult to maintain an orderly decision-making process and raises doubts regarding the question of who and how decisions are made in Iran today.
It seems that despite the smiling faces and conciliatory messages of the Iranian Foreign Minister and President, in practice the people of the Revolutionary Guards make the decisions, extreme and fanatic people, for whom the recognition of reality and constraints and the desire for calm and stability are far from them. In such a situation, Iran is voluntarily embarking on a path of renewed collision with the USA, and all that remains is to wait for Donald Trump's decision on how he will respond to the Iranians and act.
