Putin takes the war to Europe: "They are trying to sow panic in NATO"

Russia is increasing pressure on Ukraine's allies in Europe and sending them a threatening message through a series of drone incursions, sabotage operations, cyberattacks, and espionage — this was reported in the Wall Street Journal. Western officials warn that Russian activity in the "gray zone," which is conducted below the threshold of open war, is intended to sow fear among the European public, stir up divisions within NATO countries, and weaken support for Kyiv.

According to the report, the secret campaign is expanding while Russia struggles to achieve significant progress on the battlefield in Ukraine and is suffering increasingly successful Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep within its territory. The strikes are hitting, among other things, the Russian oil and gas industry and factories supplying equipment for Moscow's war machine.

NATO leaders believe that the sequence of actions indicates a growing willingness by Russian President Vladimir Putin to take risks in Europe. His goal, according to their assessment, is to reduce the flow of weapons and funds to Ukraine and deepen divisions between members of the alliance. Western intelligence services have even warned that Russia has captured Ukrainian drones, which it may use in the future to carry out "false flag" attacks against NATO countries and blame Kyiv.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the claims and said that the reports are being used by European countries to justify their military buildup against Russia.

Against the backdrop of fears of escalation, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise visit to Moscow on Tuesday. According to officials familiar with the details of the visit, one of his goals was to convey a message to the Putin government that the United States is committed to the defense of its NATO allies.

"Russia is looking for ways to reduce support for Ukraine among NATO members, and one of its sub-goals is spreading panic," said Remigijus Bridikis, director of Lithuania's State Security Department.

Explosive drones, arson, and tracking of arms shipments

Among the recent incidents being investigated in Europe are three explosive drones discovered at an airport in Germany and its vicinity. One of them was found under a Ukrainian cargo plane. At the same time, Russian drones have repeatedly penetrated the airspace of NATO countries, and one of them was recently shot down over Romania.

Intelligence agencies in the Netherlands have warned that agents of the Russian state are conducting "systematic digital espionage," including by hacking into internet-connected cameras, with the aim of tracking the movement of aid shipments to Ukraine.

According to the Sahaidachny Security Center in Ukraine, which documents Russian actions in the "gray zone," the rate of incidents attributed to Moscow has risen from about ten per month at most for much of the period since 2024 to about 15 incidents per month since April. The center emphasizes that the true number may be higher, as many events in which Russian involvement is suspected are not included in the database.

Authorities in Europe accuse Moscow of recruiting local agents via Telegram and other social networks to carry out sabotage, espionage, and vandalism. In Estonia, a suspicion is being investigated that elements linked to Russia set fire this month to a facility of Milrem Robotics, which develops military systems. Explosions and fires at ammunition facilities in Italy, Bulgaria, and Finland have also raised suspicions of Russian involvement, but authorities have yet to present evidence linking Moscow to the events.

In Slovakia, police announced that they had thwarted an attempt by three foreign nationals to attack a drone manufacturing plant. Authorities did not disclose the citizenship of the suspects, but assessments regarding Russian involvement quickly arose in the region. Even in cases where there is no certainty that the Kremlin is behind the actions, the very act of attributing them to Russia may serve Moscow and strengthen its image as someone capable of acting freely across Europe.

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In the West, they warn: Russia may test NATO

The fear in the West is not limited to isolated acts of sabotage. New American intelligence reports estimate that in the coming years, Russia may try to test NATO's resolve through a limited attack against one of the alliance's members. The options range from a significant cyberattack to a limited ground incursion. NATO's principle of collective defense states that an attack against one of its members will be considered an attack against the alliance as a whole.

At the same time, the Kremlin is estimated to be hoping to stir up fear among the public in Europe that support for Ukraine puts them personally at risk. Moscow may also try to strengthen the argument that arms shipments to Kyiv are depleting European stockpiles precisely at a time when the continent is required to prepare for the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia.

"The central interest is to change the status quo in Europe," said Estonian MP Marko Mihkelson. According to him, Russian activity is a direct continuation of the attempts at election interference that were previously attributed to Moscow in various countries.

The Kremlin may try to influence upcoming election campaigns in Germany, France, Finland, Estonia, and Poland. However, so far there is not much evidence that the Russian campaign is succeeding in achieving its goal: it is precisely the NATO countries in Eastern Europe that continue to demonstrate extensive support for military aid to Ukraine and for increasing their defense budgets.

In Romania, for example, a series of drone incursions led to a hardening of public opinion toward Moscow. Three drones were shot down over the country last month, and in another incident in May, a drone caused a fire on the roof of a residential building. Instead of distancing Romania from Ukraine, Russian activity has for now strengthened the sense of threat posed by Moscow.