Not just a myth: 'Black August' is in full swing — and the level of concern in Russia is rising
Alongside the cultural myth, history proves that the month of August often brings a sequence of difficult events in Russia. Against the backdrop of the ongoing war and the downplaying of crises, there is growing concern over a 'Black August'.
Over the last few decades, 'Black August' or the 'August curse' have become common terms among journalists in Russia to describe dramatic crises that tend to occur in the final weeks of summer. Unlike the 'silly season' of Western media, the tradition in Russia is much more pessimistic, and local history proves that 'black swan' events do indeed tend to strike in this month. This is according to an analysis published by Nathan Hodge on CNN.
35 years ago, a group of communist hardliners led a failed coup against Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev, an event that eventually led to the collapse of the empire. In August 1998, a severe financial crisis hit Russia, causing a default and the collapse of the ruble. A year later, the infiltration of militants into Dagestan ignited the Second Chechen War, a conflict that propelled a political unknown, a former KGB officer named Vladimir Putin, to the top of the government. Putin himself did not escape the curse: the sinking of the 'Kursk' submarine in 2000 and the war against Georgia in 2008 both occurred in August.
This summer is also shaping up to be a grim season for Russia. Progress on the Ukrainian front is meager, the skies over Russian cities have been darkened by Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and distribution centers of the retail giant 'Wildberries', and long lines at gas stations, alongside rumors of a new mobilization wave, are causing growing resentment among citizens.
Exiled Russian commentator Ilya Varlamov addressed the phenomenon this week and noted that although it is a coincidence, 'many Russians wait for August with fear. Especially now, when the country is truly in crisis... the fuel crisis has returned, prices are rising with no intention of stopping, and the ruble is falling'. Even the pro-Kremlin tabloid 'Moskovsky Komsomolets' addressed the anxieties, although it preferred to attribute them to astrology and a lunar eclipse.
According to the CNN analysis, despite the speculations and internal crises, Vladimir Putin continues to project his usual aura of self-confidence. In a recent speech, he downplayed the economic damage of the Ukrainian attacks and promised government rehabilitation. But as the war gets closer to the pockets of the Russians, the political gap between Moscow and Kyiv is exposed in all its nakedness.
In Ukraine, open civil processes still take place, while in Russia the opposition has been completely eliminated. The recent conviction of politician Lev Shlosberg to 11 years in prison, along with the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (whose fatal journey to prison also began with a poisoning in August 2020), highlight the grim reality. Coincidence or not, August continues to be a cruel month for Russia.
