Fearing election loss: Donald Trump's advisors try to keep the war with Iran "on a low flame"
A senior White House official told Reuters: "We continue to exert pressure on Iran, but November is a higher priority." The administration prefers to focus on increasing economic pressure until after the elections. According to sources, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio are among the senior administration officials who support keeping the conflict "quiet" until after the elections. In the background: support for Donald Trump and the war with Iran is at a historic low.
Senior aides to President Donald Trump are looking to prevent an escalation in the war with Iran ahead of the midterm elections in November, in an attempt to minimize the expected losses for the Republicans, according to a report today by Reuters. Sources noted that the White House may consider increasing the fighting in Iran after the elections on November 3, but this is far from a final decision. At this stage, the administration is focusing on increasing economic pressure on Iran, in an attempt to use it to achieve concessions in future negotiations.
"We continue to exert pressure on Iran, but November is a priority," said a senior White House official. Meanwhile, the administration is focusing on increasing economic pressure on Iran, with the goal of obtaining concessions that the USA has so far failed to achieve after months of military activity.
According to the sources, keeping the war mostly under control until the elections will help prevent the unpopular conflict from dominating the news agenda, while the Republicans try to maintain their slim majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. According to a Reuters poll from the end of August, only 31% of Americans support the war, compared to 63% who oppose it. Voters are also particularly unhappy with high fuel prices. A tactical pause in the fighting could provide the American military with breathing room to replenish its ammunition stocks, which are in significant shortage.
However, keeping the war at a low intensity is becoming more complex. Although the war is less intense than it was in the spring or during the flare-up in mid-summer, the sides have returned in recent days to mutual attacks. According to analysts, Iran is expected to continue to attack American targets and its allies in the Gulf from time to time, including military bases, vessels, and energy infrastructure. The USA could consequently find itself under pressure to respond, which could create a cycle of escalation and return both sides to a full-scale air war.
Over the weekend, the USA attacked rocket launchers on Larak Island in Iran, after a month of relative calm. Following this, Iran launched missiles towards Jordan and the UAE. Yesterday, the USA again attacked additional Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz area, which led to an Iranian response.
Another factor complicating the strategy is Donald Trump himself. According to a Reuters poll, the president's approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33% since the start of the war. American officials said that Donald Trump is not currently interested in an escalation, but he may change his mind following developments on the ground. Donald Trump has said publicly that the upcoming elections do not affect his strategy regarding Iran. However, as the war enters its seventh month, the White House is facing logistical and political limitations.
Two sources in the White House said that Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are among the senior administration officials who support the attempt to keep the conflict with Iran relatively quiet until November. At the same time, China's limited involvement in the American effort to isolate Iran raises questions regarding the effectiveness of the economic pressure campaign.
