"You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have tried every other possibility"

If it seems to anyone that when it comes to the tension in the Persian Gulf, we are reliving the headlines of two weeks ago every week, it is only because our memory is short: we are living the headlines of 85 years ago.

Winston Churchill, the Prime Minister of Britain and one of the people who knew how to reduce an entire reality to one apt sentence, said (at least some sources attribute it to him) even then: "You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing." He said and added: "After they have tried every other possibility..."

Trump, despite his megalomania, may not reach the ankles of President Roosevelt, but if we refer to that statement by Churchill, he is deep in the stage that characterized the USA not only between September 1939 and December 1941, but also later, after it was attacked by the Japanese, but refused to open a "second front" against Nazi Germany.

Trump's "other possibilities" have so far included symbolic participation in the final chord of the Israeli operation "Like a Lion", much more binding and full participation in operation "Lion's Roar" - and since then, mainly talk that gives the feeling (mainly to the Iranians, unfortunately) that the United States has gotten itself into something too big for it.

We will return to this concept of "too big for it" in a moment, for anyone who has difficulty understanding how there can be something that is bigger even than the greatest power in the world - economically and militarily, but first a little about these days, in which it is absorbing humiliation after humiliation.

Trump hoped for a quick victory. In his ignorance, he thought that Iran was a third-world country, one that taking over would be only slightly more complex than conquering Venezuela. Add to that the plan attributed to Benjamin Netanyahu and the then-head of the Mossad, Dadi Barnea, for a quick overthrow of the regime - and Trump walked with open eyes into this trap.

Before Western eyes

What has happened since is simply beyond his understanding, this time not only because of his fault but because of the inability to look at the Middle Eastern reality through Western eyes. From his point of view, he struck the Iranians, bombed and destroyed. This was supposed to improve his positions in the negotiations on ending the fighting, only that is in "American" - in spoken Iranian it sounds completely different.

Trump, determined not to get too involved - and a bit panicked in the face of an unprecedented low at home, in American public opinion - decided to retreat even more: now it is enough for him if the Strait of Hormuz (which closed only following the American attack!) is opened for free passage of vessels, which will maintain the stability of oil prices in the world - and from his point of view, let Tehran make only a symbolic gesture in the direction of voluntary disarmament of nuclear weapons.

To his astonishment, the Iranians rejected even the dream offer that was presented to them by his representatives, each time in a different version. They do not want the package of rustling bills that he is waving in front of their eyes, but on the contrary - they provoke him with a policy that if one were to reduce it to one sentence, it would be: "Come on, if you're a man"...

Let's stop here for a moment and draw a straight line from Tehran to Gaza: in Israel, they are already well aware of the Western person's inability to understand the rules of the Middle East. They do not understand how the Israelis, supposedly "Western" just like them, cannot manage to solve the bleeding Israeli-Palestinian conflict through compromise.

Jungle laws

From their point of view, the management of the conflict, as interpreted by Israel, borders (at best) on war crimes. One can babble more about Qatar's deep involvement in shaping the consciousness of the north-western part of the globe, but the truth is that we have a much deeper disagreement with this crowd.

It is not only with the Europeans and North Americans that Israel has a disagreement, but also within itself:

The gap between what the citizens of Israel are willing to do - and be able to look at their image in the mirror, and what they must do if they wish to continue to exist within an ocean of hatred that cannot be bounded by political-territorial ambitions, is becoming unbearable for quite a few Israelis, who want to remain part of the family of Western nations (it is enough to look at the negative migration data, the growing number of those leaving and especially their socio-economic profile).

Trump is beginning to understand what is difficult even for some Israelis to accept: you do not go to war in the Middle East to end it with "logical" negotiations (logical to whom?), but only to win a total victory, since anything less than that is a loss, even a defeat.

Hamas has taken blow after blow since October 7? Very true, but did that give Israel a total victory? Not at all. One can chatter until tomorrow about the lack of a political horizon as a necessary condition for a successful end to the war, but the truth is much sadder - in its international status, Israel has no ability to win a total victory in Gaza without becoming a pariah at least as much as North Korea.

Back to Trump, who is becoming more frustrated by the day: he declares the renewal of negotiations - the Iranians mock him and "memes" run on the network that liken him to a rooster. He threatens to open the gates of hell on them - and they urge him to hurry. He suspends an attack "the largest since World War II" - and they in response release a video of how it is best to assassinate his wife and son...

Good for the Jews?

Where will Trump lead the frustration? It is hard to know, mainly because his dilemma, contrary to his belligerent statements, is real. He has the ability to cause dramatic damage to the Iranians with airstrikes, but the meaning is severe damage, in property and life, also to his allies - from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar to Israel.

He has the ability to be more effective on the ground, but the meaning of a ground invasion is coffins wrapped in US flags (hundreds? thousands?). Go explain why all this is happening, to citizens who are thousands of kilometers away, in completely different time zones and, above all, consciousness...

So Trump twists and turns, trying to take one step in every direction - and immediately retreats back, hoping that the Iranians will give him a way out with dignity (he doesn't even expect more than that at the moment) and in return all their demands will be met.

Only the Iranians are not only not hurrying, but are adding provocation by shooting to verbal provocation, pushing him into a corner and causing more embarrassment and, above all, eroding the status of the USA as the strongest global power.

In Israel, the thesis has become an axiom that the Israeli interest is a Gog and Magog war between the USA and Iran. Is that so? Not at all certain. Not only because of the direct damage (from missiles to the cessation of economic activity) that we might absorb, but because as long as we rely on the USA's table, we risk that on the day of the great reconciliation that will come after that war, Israel will be invited to the "sulha" (reconciliation) in the role of the lamb.