Netanyahu Must Convince Trump: How to Escape the Iranian Trap?

"The best answer to all the problems that Iran has created is regime change. When that happens, there will be a new Middle East." These words, said by the late Senator Lindsey Graham during Operation Roaring Lion, deserve to be heard at his funeral, even if it currently seems that the US administration is acting in other directions to solve the crisis with Iran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will fly to Washington against the backdrop of the additional opportunity that President Donald Trump is giving to the diplomatic track. This time, too, the mediation proposal is being promoted by Pakistan with the push and backing of China, with the goal of reviving the interim agreement and renewing direct talks between the USA and Iran. The American strikes have indeed been paused, but the naval blockade continues, as does its economic damage to Iran.

At this stage, the main bone of contention is still the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump cannot afford to give up freedom of navigation, and on the other hand, the Iranians cannot compromise on this leverage.

The exercises that the Iranians are taking in the Hormuz issue are the prelude to what is expected in the complex nuclear issues. The motivation of the leadership in Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons has risen following the war, and the chances that it will allow Donald Trump the victory he seeks to achieve on this issue are slim.

Against this background, the White House understands more than ever Lindsey Graham's statements about the real solution, but the concerns regarding the chances of achieving it and its costs are directing efforts to the futile path of negotiations.

Benjamin Netanyahu's first task will be to convince President Donald Trump and his team of the situation assessment and the futility of the negotiation path. The positions of the US Vice President will pose a difficult challenge for him. If he succeeds in this, the continuation of the discussion will deal with the strategic alternatives for continuing the campaign.

It should be assumed that Israel, in its aspiration to cause regime change, prefers the alternative of prolonged military and economic pressure over a limited-time flare-up. While sustained pressure will deepen the economic crisis in Iran and encourage internal unrest, a temporary flare-up — even if it destroys additional capabilities of the Iranians — will eventually return relations to the negotiation track and allow the regime to recover.

However, it is not certain that President Donald Trump will be willing to bear the economic costs of this alternative, which also does not guarantee a clear answer to the nuclear problem. In such a situation, the fear is that Donald Trump might be tempted into a "bad deal" — one that provides solutions for appearances or for the short term. When the choice is between such a deal and a limited flare-up, it seems that Israel's position is clear.

Saudi Nuclear

Benjamin Netanyahu, it should be assumed, will again welcome President Donald Trump's announcement that the nuclear agreement signed between the USA and Saudi Arabia will not include enrichment, and will be "subject to its joining the Abraham Accords." This announcement may calm some of the concerns that arose following the early publications about the agreement between the countries, but it also raises questions.

First, it is unclear how it sits with the clause in the agreement that leaves the option of enrichment in Saudi Arabia subject to a joint review by both countries. Assuming that Washington will know how to deal with this, the bigger question is what incentives the royal house in Riyadh has to join the Abraham Accords — especially in light of the broad opposition that exists in Saudi public opinion to such a move.

Normalization with Saudi Arabia is indeed an important goal for Israel, but one should not pay political or security prices for it. The connection with it should be a clear interest of every country that is looking for a strong partner, possessing security, technological, and economic power.

Do Not Be Tempted in Syria

One should not be impressed by Al-Julani's statements about his desire to achieve a security agreement, which will pave the way for a political agreement with Israel. One can suspect him of being a proxy of Erdogan or a jihadist in a suit; this would not be suspecting the innocent. A wise Arab proverb warns — "Al-kalam ma aleihum jamrak," words that are poured into the air space are not subject to customs duty. He must be measured by his actions over the years, and not by his words during his short period of rule.

The author is the head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, and served as the head of the National Security Council in 2017-2021.