New intelligence assessments on Mojtaba and emergency discussion convened by Trump: Report
According to The New York Times, the US President has convened senior administration officials to discuss intensifying the military campaign against Iran. A key factor is a new intelligence assessment suggesting that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic is seeking to develop advanced nuclear weapons.
US President Donald Trump convened a meeting on Friday with his senior advisors and cabinet members to decide whether to expand the military campaign against Iran, according to four officials briefed on the meeting who spoke with The New York Times. The discussion followed the collapse of the ceasefire and the memorandum of understanding intended to return Washington and Tehran to negotiations, and occurred against the backdrop of a series of statements by Trump regarding the possibility of intensifying strikes.
At the center of the considerations presented to the administration is a new American intelligence assessment, according to which the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is much more interested than his father and predecessor in advancing the development of nuclear weapons.
According to officials, while Mojtaba Khamenei has never publicly called for building a nuclear bomb, American intelligence agencies believe that he and the hawkish government that arose in Tehran after the elimination of many of the regime's senior officials hold an aspiration to develop advanced nuclear weapons.
This assessment differs from how his father, Ali Khamenei, was perceived. Although the United States claimed for years that Iran seeks to maintain the ability to build a nuclear weapon, many American officials believed that the previous leader's reluctance to make an actual decision to produce a bomb was sincere.
Ali Khamenei even issued a religious decree (fatwa) prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons, a position presented to the International Atomic Energy Agency as early as 2005. However, the decree did not prevent Iran from continuing to develop its nuclear program, accumulating knowledge, and advancing in areas that would allow it to break out quickly to a weapon if a political decision were made.
American intelligence estimates, based on public statements and conversations intercepted before the war, that Mojtaba Khamenei does not share his father's hesitation. He is believed to support the development of an advanced thermonuclear warhead that could be miniaturized in the future and mounted on a long-range missile.
This contrasts with options examined in Iran toward the end of the Biden administration, when officials in Tehran checked the possibility of developing a simpler and cruder nuclear weapon, similar to the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Such a weapon would have been harder to launch but could have provided Iran with basic deterrence. According to American officials, the new leader sees less benefit in such a solution and prefers more advanced capabilities.
However, American officials warn that most information about Mojtaba Khamenei's positions was collected before the war. He was seriously wounded in its early stages and has since reduced his public appearances and communication with his surroundings, both due to his condition and out of fear of becoming a target in another attack.
It is estimated that he remains at the head of the regime, but his authority is more limited than that of his father, who ruled Iran for more than 36 years. The current government is composed of more hawkish elements and has already demonstrated a tougher stance in negotiations and an attempt to establish broader control in the Strait of Hormuz.
American officials emphasize that for the time being, there are no signs that Iran has actually resumed uranium enrichment or full activity in the nuclear program. However, Tehran has worked to preserve the assets and equipment remaining in its possession after American and Israeli strikes.
According to American intelligence, Iran has moved at least some centrifuges to a fortified underground complex in the center of the country, known in the US as "Mount Magus" (Har Ha'mechashhef). Israeli intelligence tracked the transfer, but American officials estimate that at this stage, the main goal is to protect the equipment — not to immediately resume enrichment.
The complex at Mount Magus was not attacked during the American strikes in June 2025. According to American officials, the underground halls at the site are buried deeper than the penetration range of the most powerful conventional bombs in the United States' possession.
After examining the damage caused to Fordo, the Iranians studied the penetration capability of American ordnance and concluded that the facilities at Mount Magus are relatively protected against aerial attack. However, Tehran fears the possibility of an American commando raid. According to American intelligence, Iran has deployed ground forces in the area to deter such an action.
Trump threatened this week to attack the complex, calling it a "possible target for a big and fat strike right in their front door." However, he also said that the United States does not detect activity at the site — a reference to the fact that Iran has not yet resumed enrichment, even though it has moved equipment there.
Previous strikes succeeded in freezing the progress of the nuclear program but did not eliminate the infrastructure needed for its restoration. According to intelligence estimates, if Iran had acted immediately to repair centrifuges and resume enrichment at alternative sites, the delay would have amounted to only about six months.
Iran has not done so thus far, but the stockpile of highly enriched uranium — the key component needed for developing a bomb — remains intact and accessible to the regime.
In the American administration, it is believed that the assessment that the new Supreme Leader is more open to developing a bomb may serve as additional justification for expanding the campaign. On the other hand, experts warn that the war itself and attempts to undermine the regime might actually strengthen the argument in Tehran that only a nuclear weapon could prevent a future American or Israeli attack.
Rosemary Kalnic, director of the Middle East program at the Defense Priorities institute, said that the war and the possibility that the United States will help Saudi Arabia establish enrichment facilities make the possibility that Iran will act to obtain nuclear weapons "significantly more likely."
According to her, "Iran now has a much greater incentive to weaponize its capabilities, in order to deter future attempts by the United States or Israel to collapse the regime or the Iranian state."
According to American officials, even within Iran, the position of those who argued even before the war that only a nuclear bomb could ensure that the country would not be attacked again has strengthened.
