Morgan Stanley: "SpaceX stock will soar by 100%" — here is the reason

Investment firm Morgan Stanley has published a bold forecast for Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX) stock: it could more than double. Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an "overweight" rating and a price target of $300 — more than twice the current price, which is hovering around the IPO level of $135.

Unlike what one might expect from the world's most famous space company, Morgan Stanley's bet does not rely on rockets or Starlink, but on the company's AI business, led by the acquisition of the startup Cursor.

According to Jonas, the market is not correctly pricing SpaceX's AI arm.

"As investors see more clues in the Cursor and Grok story, we see potential for the valuation discount on SpaceX's AI business to dissipate, leading to a significant rise in the stock," he wrote in a report to clients.

He added: "From our conversations, very few investors are optimistic about SpaceX's AI business beyond the Neocloud space" — meaning the market has not yet grasped the potential, and that is exactly what he believes creates an opportunity.

Cursor is a manufacturer of a popular AI-based programming tool, which SpaceX agreed to acquire for $60 billion in stock just days after its IPO. The acquisition is intended to strengthen the company's AI business following the merger with xAI and to make it more competitive against giants like OpenAI and Anthropic.

Cursor's numbers are impressive: according to Morgan Stanley, more than 60% of Fortune 500 companies and a total of about 50,000 organizations use its programming tools. In November 2025, the company announced it had crossed the $1 billion annual revenue threshold. Jonas expects the deal, which is set to close in the coming weeks, to provide a series of positive catalysts for the stock.

Morgan Stanley was one of the lead underwriters for the June 12 IPO. In other words, the investment firm publishing the optimistic forecast is the same entity that helped bring the stock to market, which requires reading the analysis with a critical eye.

However, the recommendation is in line with the consensus on Wall Street, where 29 out of 36 analysts following SpaceX recommend "buy" or "strong buy." Yet, the stock has fallen about 6% in the last month and is trading only a fraction above the IPO price.

The gap between the analysts' optimism and the market price illustrates how difficult it is to price the company, especially its new and speculative part: AI.

Since SpaceX entered the Nasdaq 100 index, many pension and savings funds hold it automatically. If Morgan Stanley's forecast comes true, passive savings will benefit, but if the bet on AI turns out to be too optimistic, those same savings could suffer a decline.