Fewer young people are enrolling in US campuses — but the competition is not getting easier
The number of 18-year-olds in the US is shrinking due to a decline in birth rates, and enrollment in higher education institutions is expected to shrink by 13% by 2041. Contrary to expectations, the decrease in the number of young people will not necessarily make admission chances to desirable institutions easier.
The higher education system in the United States is facing a "demographic cliff." After years of growth, the pool of 18-year-olds from which new students come is shrinking as a result of a decline in birth rates, according to a publication in the Wall Street Journal.
The largest cohort of Americans born in a single year arrived on campuses in the fall of 2025, and a decline is now emerging. According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of students in colleges and universities is expected to drop by 13% by 2041. In some parts of the United States, particularly in the Midwest and the Northeast, the decline has already begun.
Apparently, one might have assumed that a smaller pool of candidates would automatically make admission to colleges and universities easier. However, according to analysts in the field of higher education, this will not necessarily be the case everywhere — and especially not in the most sought-after and competitive institutions.
It is impossible to accurately predict future admission rates for academic institutions because these figures depend on many factors, including the reputation of campus life, the success of sports teams, and even the weather. However, the "demographic cliff" is arriving just as another phenomenon is gaining momentum: a shift of candidates toward institutions perceived as higher quality.
As part of this trend, the most sought-after institutions are attracting an increasing number of candidates, while less attractive institutions are receiving fewer applications.
One of the reasons for this is the growing skepticism regarding the value of an academic degree. More families believe that if they are going to spend tens of thousands of dollars, the degree should pay off and lead to a good job — otherwise, they wonder what the point of the investment is.
Many large and leading public institutions have also become more competitive. Some of them, such as the University of Michigan, have long enjoyed prestige. Other public institutions have strengthened their status and are attracting students who seek to enjoy a classic campus experience, but at a lower cost than many private institutions. On the other hand, many regional institutions or those with less selective admission requirements have become even more accessible.
At the same time, teenagers are trying to hedge their risks by applying to a larger number of institutions. According to the 2024-2025 Common App report, students today submit an average of nearly seven applications each — an increase of 46% compared to the 2015-2016 academic year.
