Gold is surging again: Is this the comeback everyone was waiting for?
The yellow metal keeps rising, climbing to a seven-week high against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, a cooling US labor market, and signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. But it is still very far from the January peak — and that is exactly the big question: is this a new rally or just a temporary rise?
Gold is back in the spotlight. After a nervous half-year in which the yellow metal lost altitude, it surged this week to its highest level since the end of June and recorded a fourth consecutive session of gains. Gold climbed to about $4,295 per ounce before settling around $4,268, while futures traded around $4,329. A seven-week high, but — and here lies the whole story — still more than 20% below the all-time high set at the end of January, when the price per ounce touched $5,589.
The question that concerns everyone who holds pension savings, a training fund, or a provident fund, even if they are not aware of it, is simple: is this the beginning of a return to the peaks, or just a short correction within a downward trend?
Three forces are acting simultaneously now. The first is the US labor market, which has cooled sharply. According to data from the payroll company ADP, hiring in the private sector slowed significantly in July, with most of the growth coming from the healthcare system. Such weak data reduces the chance of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, and this is good news for gold: it is an asset that does not bear yield, so any scenario of a lower interest rate increases demand for it.
The second force is the weak dollar. A joint intervention by the US and Japan in the currency market last weekend, intended to strengthen the faltering Japanese yen, reportedly included the sale of about $60 billion in US government bonds. The result: the dollar index eroded to a six-week low, around 99.78. When the dollar weakens, gold, which is denominated in dollars, becomes cheaper and more attractive to investors around the world.
The third force comes precisely from the Middle East. Iran announced that it is close to an agreement with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for the energy market. And here lies an interesting irony: usually, geopolitical de-escalation hurts gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset. However, during the recent fighting, gold actually fell because it traded in the opposite direction to oil prices and the dollar, both of which strengthened. Now, as the tension fades, oil and the dollar are weakening — and gold is recovering.
And this is exactly the context of the past year. Gold reached a peak in January after a massive rally that stretched throughout 2025 and even beyond, against the backdrop of massive purchases by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and fears of inflation. Then came the difficult half-year: war, a strong dollar, and expensive oil that weighed on the metal and wiped out a significant part of the gains.
And here is the caveat. The current recovery is still fragile, and gold is very far from the peak. If the Fed surprises and raises interest rates, if the dollar strengthens again, or if the agreement on Hormuz explodes at the last moment, the trend could reverse. In addition, as an asset that does not yield interest or dividends, gold always has an alternative cost: every dollar invested in it is a dollar not invested in an instrument that yields a return.
And what does this mean for the Israeli saver? Exposure to gold exists in many pension portfolios and savings instruments, even without you choosing it, usually as a protection component against shocks and inflation. A rise in price supports the value of the portfolio, but the bottom line is: anyone looking for a leveraged bet on a "return to the peak" in gold should remember that the road there is still long and full of bumps.
