The new alliances in the region and the reason everyone is looking at Iran: "If the king remains - you haven't won"
Ahead of the elections, Dr. Mordechai Kedar estimates that the countries of the region are preparing for the day after Donald Trump and see Iran as a power that survived the campaign - and it pushes them toward new security alliances.
Middle East expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar spoke with Gadi Ness on Radio North 104.5FM about the changing balance of power in the region, the alliances being formed against Iran, and Israeli dependence on the USA. According to him, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are currently operating under political pressure, but each of them seeks to present a completely different picture to the voter.
According to Kedar, two central events are currently influencing the region more than other issues, including Gaza: the approaching elections in the USA and in Israel. "The two big contenders, Benjamin Netanyahu here and Donald Trump there, want to present an achievement to the voter," he said. "Each one wants to show something else, and that is the problem. Donald Trump wants to show a cosmic peace that has fallen upon the world, where all Jews and Muslims are sitting together around one campfire. In contrast, Benjamin Netanyahu wants to show a victory picture in which Israel tramples its enemies - Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. But the Prime Minister cannot, because the 'policeman' in the USA does not allow it."
Kedar criticized Israeli dependence on Washington and argued that Israel should have developed significant relationships with other powers over the years. "The moment you put all your chips on the USA and did not develop parallel relationships with other powers like China or Russia that would help you, then you are dependent on the USA and have to accept its dictates," he said.
According to him, Israel needs to act quickly to expand its relationships: "One needs to develop a different system of relationships very quickly, in addition to the USA, with other countries. Because if this is what is happening today when Donald Trump is present, then what will happen when the Democrats take the presidency?"
"The alliances are intended first of all against Iran"
Later, Kedar addressed the regional developments and the alliances being formed between countries in the Middle East. According to him, these moves are not aimed primarily against Israel. "Directly, it is not against us, but against Iran," he said. There is a perception in the region that Iran emerged from the campaign with the regime still standing.
"In their view, Iran won the war. The regime managed to survive against the strongest, most sophisticated, and lethal power in the world - the USA. Although there is damage, in the end, they have the upper hand." Kedar also referred to the Shiite processions seen in recent days as part of the Ashura events, explaining that these are rituals commemorating Hussein ibn Ali, who was killed in Karbala. According to him, this is a central expression of Shiite identity.
According to Kedar, one of the central reasons for the rapprochement between countries in the region is the fear of the day when the USA will reduce its involvement. "They see the Iranian story and are afraid of the day after, that Donald Trump will fold his forces in order to win the midterm elections," he said. "In addition, it is not certain that he will win a majority in the Senate or Congress, or that he will undergo an impeachment process."
Those countries are trying to prepare in advance for the possibility that Iran will emerge from the current period strengthened. "All these countries have prepared a cure for the disease in advance, in order to advance against a strengthened Iran," he said, adding that from their perspective, Tehran currently also has greater influence on what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.
Kedar summarized his perception using an image from the world of chess. According to him, in terms of the Middle East, the very survival of the Iranian regime is more significant than the damage it sustained along the way. "If you didn't manage to take down the king, then you failed. Checkmate is a dead king. If you didn't manage to kill him, then the other side is still standing on its feet - and you failed. So the USA failed," he said. From the perspective of the countries of the region, the schedule also plays in favor of Tehran: "Donald Trump will go wherever he goes in two years at most, and the mullahs in Iran will remain there forever according to their approach and perception. So who won?"
