The missiles that penetrated American defense, and the arsenal that was not destroyed: "The Iranians recovered faster than we thought"
Despite Trump's statements about the "destruction of 92% of the missile array," Iran has hit nine American bases, launched more than 60 missiles at Jordan, and proven that its fire, command, and control systems are still active. Weaknesses have been exposed in the defense of US military bases, the US Air Force is urgently seeking a new system, and assessments are being made regarding the volume of fire if Israel enters the campaign.
News in brief: Iran has hit nine American bases in the last two weeks. Four American soldiers were killed and about a hundred were wounded in the attacks. Brigadier General (res.) Zvika Haimovich notes: "We have once again underestimated the situation." Assessment: Some of the missiles fired were retrieved from Iranian "missile cities," despite their entrances having been damaged during Operation Iron Swords. The emerging change in the next campaign against Iran: more extensive involvement of the Houthis.
Despite the statements of US President Donald Trump that the Iranian army has been completely destroyed and that 92% of its missile array has been eliminated, the severe hits on American bases and the volume of launches in the last two weeks indicate that Tehran still holds a significant arsenal of missiles and UAVs, active command and control systems, and the ability to inflict real damage on American forces in the region. This arsenal threatens the Gulf states, Iraq, or Jordan — and could also be directed against Israel if the campaign in Iran escalates.
Since the resumption of fighting, Iran has managed to penetrate American defense systems and hit nine US Army bases across the Middle East. Four American soldiers were killed and about a hundred were wounded, and heavy damage was caused at several sites. Footage published online revealed a massive fire at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, extensive destruction at an outpost near the Jordan-Syria border, and a significant hit on an American base in Erbil.
"We have once again underestimated the situation"
In a conversation with N12, Brigadier General (res.) Zvika Haimovich, former commander of the Air Defense Array, explains that the volume of fire indicates three Iranian capabilities that remain active: high readiness of missile and UAV arrays, the functioning of command and control systems, and a rapid recovery rate from attacks. "The time period between an American attack and an Iranian response is very short," says Haimovich. "You can see that their command and control systems are working and active. Without such a system, it is impossible to carry out these responses — not in timing, not in the method of operation, and not in scale."
"The most prominent figure is the number of missiles the Iranians fired at Jordan, mainly toward the Aqaba area and the joint US-Jordan base in Al-Azraq. We are talking about more than 60 ballistic missiles," he says. "These are missiles that are also relevant to Israel — in range, location, and their direction. Whoever fires such quantities even before a full-scale war, probably has a recovery process much faster than we in the West estimate. In the last three years, we have time and again underestimated the enemy's capabilities. This was true for Hamas, it was true for Hezbollah, and we are seeing it now in Iran as well."
The tunnels that were reopened
During the war, Israel and the US attacked Iranian "missile cities" — large underground facilities where missiles and launchers were stored. Some of the attacks were aimed at tunnel entrances and access routes, with the goal of burying Iranian weaponry underground. "The infrastructure that is deep underground is very difficult to destroy," explains Haimovich. "You can hit the entrances and plug them, but the Iranians rehabilitate the entrances and bring out again what is left inside. It is likely that a large part of the capability we see now comes from there."
To this are added reports of Russian and Chinese assistance, mainly in the fields of electronics, guidance, navigation, and communication. The assessment is that the current fire relies on a combination of missiles produced since Operation Iron Swords and weaponry that survived in the underground facilities and returned to operational status.
According to Haimovich, the very Iranian willingness to escalate also indicates the confidence Tehran has left in its missile stockpile. "The Iranian regime would not allow itself to respond in these volumes if it did not know it had enough capability in its arsenal to continue and respond," he says. "If the Iranians felt they were left without capability, they would have acted from a position of inferiority. At the moment, we are seeing the opposite picture."
Erosion in American defense
The hits on the bases do not necessarily indicate an upgrade in the missiles themselves. According to Haimovich, it is a combination of Iranian precision and intelligence capabilities, methods of operation, and the state of American defense systems. Radars and defense batteries in Jordan and the Gulf states were damaged in earlier stages of the war, and American stockpiles were eroded following weeks of interceptions. "This is a result of a combination of the method of operation, the intelligence they have, and the defense capability of the other side," he explained.
According to him, the very firing at Aqaba also illustrates Iranian confidence in missile precision. Eilat is a few kilometers from the area at which the fire was aimed, and any small deviation could have led to a hit on Israeli territory. "When Iran fires a missile from a range of 1,500-1,600 km to the Aqaba area, when Eilat is a few kilometers away, it is taking a risk," he says. "To carry out such fire, it must be confident in its ability to aim and hit the place it is aiming at."
NBC reported yesterday that American commanders decided in some cases not to intercept Iranian missiles and UAVs, due to the erosion in the stock of interceptors. According to the report, the decision is made according to the armament trajectory and the degree of danger posed by it, with the goal of saving interceptors for threats that could cause casualties or heavy damage.
The shortage of interceptors and the hits on high-value assets have already led the US Air Force to urgently seek a new layer of defense for its bases. In a request for information published a few days ago, the Air Force turned to defense industries to locate a mobile system with a large stock of interceptors that could deal with cruise missiles and a wide variety of UAVs.
Assessment of the volume of fire in the next round
If the war resumes and again involves Israel in full scope, Haimovich does not believe we will see a dramatic decrease in the rate of launches compared to the previous campaign. According to him, Iran is still capable of launching between 10 and 15 missiles daily. Proof of this was already received in the 17-hour war about two months ago, during which Iran launched more than 20 missiles, and alongside them, the Houthis launched three additional missiles.
According to him, the main change in the next confrontation may be more extensive involvement of the Houthis. "I think we will see them more active than in the previous campaign," he estimates. "This will add the challenge of splitting and multi-arena observation. Just as they participated in the 17-hour confrontation, so they can also participate in the next confrontation. In terms of the volumes of Iranian fire, one must prepare more or less for the same volumes we saw in the previous campaign."
