Likud Ministers and MKs Fear Complaining About Netanyahu's Decisions

A Likud MK told a close friend this week: "People don't understand what we are going through. Such emotional turmoil. One day you read articles that Netanyahu wants ten reserved spots. Another day eight spots, suddenly they talk about canceling the primaries altogether. It's not normal. People work for years ahead of the primaries.

Running to events every evening, from the north to the south, maintaining from morning to night party members, branch heads, major recruiters. Hard and exhausting work, and suddenly they want to cancel everything for us. And with Netanyahu, it's impossible to talk, nor with those close to him. They don't count anyone. And God forbid someone opens their mouth. And another thing: fine, if the number of mandates were like in the 2019 or 2020 elections — 35 and 36 mandates, then the pressure would be less. But the Likud polls are terrible, between 20 and 23 mandates. After Netanyahu's reservations, a maximum of 15 spots remain, maybe less, and 40 ministers and MKs are fighting for all of these."

This monologue was not intended to cause Walla readers heartache, sorrow, or God forbid, tears. This is simply the true state of affairs for ministers and MKs who are beside themselves these days, but above all, are afraid to complain, let alone rebel. The only one who came out against Netanyahu's decision to accept eight reserved spots and requested a different primary system was MK David Bitan. But even he preferred to attack the Likud Central Committee chairman, Minister Haim Katz, and call on Likud members to "save Netanyahu from Haim Katz." Nonsense. Likud Central Committee members heard and were not impressed. When Netanyahu was on his way to the US on the back of the Knaf Tzion plane, they voted and approved all his demands. MKs and ministers can continue to cry, whine, and complain, but quietly. Not publicly, otherwise they will end their career.

And before continuing, a word about the polls that are shaking Likud members, in fact, the entire political system. A tweeter on the X network who calls himself NYHO dismantled this week the legend that polls don't really hurt. He also shattered the legend that Netanyahu supporters love to recite, according to which "the left wins in the polls, but at the ballot box Bibi hits hard." Rubbish. The same tweeter gave examples backed by polls published before the last elections, here are some of them: in the fourth round of elections in 2021, after Netanyahu's trick against Gantz, the polls gave an advantage to the Netanyahu bloc. At the ballot boxes, Bennett's Yamina and Gideon Sa'ar's party received less than expected. Blue and White, Meretz, and Ra'am received more than the polls gave them. The internal distribution changed, the blocs were predicted accurately.

Further: in the second round of elections in September 2019, the opposite happened. In the polls, the right-wing bloc led, but in the elections, the right-wing bloc received much less. That is, the polls gave more than it actually received.

In the last elections in November 2022, the polls predicted 61 mandates for the Netanyahu bloc. In practice, the bloc received 64 mandates. The reason: more than eight mandates of the anti-Netanyahu bloc burned below the electoral threshold. Meretz did not pass and burned almost four mandates, the same with Balad, and Ayelet Shaked burned another mandate. Compared to 2021, the voting rate for the Netanyahu bloc remained the same: 48.3 percent. Only thanks to the burning of votes did the Netanyahu bloc receive 64 mandates.

The conclusion from all the data is similar: polls correctly identify trends, and certainly the balance of power between the blocs, changes usually occur within the blocs.

And back to the polls of these days

The polls indicate between 20 and 23 mandates for Likud and the pressure is immense. The Netanyahu bloc fluctuates in the polls between 50 and 53 mandates. The bloc against him stands between 57 and 61 mandates.

Netanyahu is desperate to break forward. Likud bothers him less, he is as usual concerned that the bloc reaches 61 or at least reaches a number that will prevent the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot from forming a government.

But it is not easy for him. What haven't we gone through since October 7? A bloody war in Gaza, two rounds of war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and above all two wars against Iran: the first Iran war and the second Iran war. Netanyahu hoped that this would also help him strengthen politically. Nothing. The blocs remained rigid. Barely moved. The changes are only within the blocs. In the anti-Netanyahu bloc, Eisenkot rose, Bennett fell, but the blocs are stable. Netanyahu very much hoped for a big jump after the first Iran war. He ordered in June 2025 the Air Force pilots to launch a major attack against Iran, the decades-old fear barrier was broken. It was a brilliant war. Air Force pilots literally traveled in the skies of Iran, eliminated senior Iranian officials, destroyed military infrastructure. Only the intervention of President Trump, who one morning, at the end of 12 days of fighting, returned the Air Force pilots from the skies of Tehran to Israel, only this led to the end of the war. Netanyahu was sure that the successful war would also bring with it a big jump in mandates and was bitterly disappointed to discover that nothing. Likud rose by a mandate, the Netanyahu bloc remained with the same numbers. So did the bloc against him.

Mr. "Different League"

But there was one thing that Netanyahu wanted to leverage, to wave with, to differentiate himself from the rest of the candidates, especially from Eisenkot. The connection with US President Trump. Mr. "Different League." The one who speaks to world leaders at eye level. He wanted everyone to know that there is a dramatic difference between him and Eisenkot, Bennett, and all the rest. When they run between sweaty home circles across the country, he meets with Trump and manages the Middle East. But even this collapsed. Trump no longer really trusts him after he promised him before the second Iran war that the Iranian regime would fall within weeks. The American media, many Democratic senators, also Republicans, accuse Netanyahu of dragging Trump and the US into a war that is only getting complicated.

And since then, Trump and Netanyahu are no longer. Certainly not like in the past. There are no frequent phone calls, what there were are angry briefings by Trump and his harsh statements against Netanyahu.

In recent weeks, Netanyahu tried with all his might to get a meeting at the White House. He knows that a close connection, or what looks like a close connection between an Israeli prime minister and an American president, any president, is a great political asset. Certainly less than three months before elections. Netanyahu wanted a meeting, Trump did not. Trump, like Netanyahu, doesn't really have friends. Everything for them is instrumental. He needs Netanyahu, he will praise him. Doesn't need him, so it's not urgent to meet.

After much pressure, the Trump administration agreed to a meeting only on the condition that Netanyahu would bring them some achievement. And after all the declarations, promises, oaths, the cabinet approved this week under Netanyahu's pressure the entry of a multinational force into Gaza. A complete contradiction to everything he promised. Because the Americans demanded. Only then did he receive approval for the meeting.

And the meeting? He was brought in through a back door, Trump did not wait for him outside as in previous meetings. There was no one-on-one meeting, only a broad meeting of over ten people lasting an hour and twenty minutes. There were no statements with mutual praise as Netanyahu so wanted. Quite disappointing. Trump, a skilled political animal, knows that closeness to Netanyahu these days in the US will not do him any good. So he ensured a cold and alienated meeting.

But this did not bother Netanyahu, who knows how important it is to present to voters a united front with Trump, close, intimate, to exaggerate and say in an interview with the Fox network: "This was the best meeting I have had with President Trump." So be it. We will see soon how much it helped him.