Investors are betting on him with a 20 percent gap: this is Israel's next Prime Minister
Two international prediction platforms place Gadi Eizenkot with a gap of more than 20 points over Benjamin Netanyahu in the race for Prime Minister. On Polymarket he stands at 53% and on Kalshi at 54%, with tens of millions of dollars already invested.
While the political system in Israel prepares for the next elections, it seems that the international arena is already starting to bet on the identity of Israel's next Prime Minister — and the numbers point to a change in leadership. An analysis of data from the world's largest prediction and betting platforms reveals that former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot has opened a significant and dramatic gap over his main rival, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
As emerges from the data of Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, Eizenkot currently enjoys a 53% probability of being elected as the next Prime Minister. This is a significant gap of 22 percent from Netanyahu, who stands at only 31%. The trading volume on this issue alone stands at almost 32 million dollars, a figure that indicates immense global interest and real sums of money invested in predicting the political outcome in Israel. The other candidates in the arena are trailing far behind; Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett hold 6% each, while Gilad Erdan settles for only 1%.
This unequivocal trend is not limited to one arena. The picture becomes clearer and gains further validity when examining an almost identical situation from the prediction site Kalshi. According to these data, Eizenkot even slightly strengthens his position and stands at the top with a 54% chance of forming the government after the 2026 elections. At the same time, Netanyahu weakens by a single percent compared to Polymarket and stands at 30%. Avigdor Lieberman is in third place on this site with 7%.
Prediction markets, based on the "wisdom of the crowd" and backed by real capital investments, are often considered a reliable indicator that embodies a weighting of polls and in-depth analysis. The large and consistent gap, over 20 percent in favor of Eizenkot on both platforms reviewed, indicates that international investors and prediction traders identify a clear momentum in favor of the former IDF Chief of Staff, while assessing a change of government with high probability. Will the big money be right this time too? The current data certainly points in one direction.
